CoinDesk
Seven Senate contests rated tossups could decide control of the chamber in January. Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats 45, and two independents caucus with Democrats; Democrats need to flip four seats to take control. The House is also up for grabs, with Democrats expected to win it.
The races include Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, Michigan, Texas, Iowa and Maine. Prediction-market odds and polling do not measure the same thing: polls ask voters about their choices, while markets reflect bets on who will win. In several races, bettors give Democratic challengers an edge, including Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mary Peltola in Alaska, while Republicans lead in Iowa.
Crypto is not a major campaign issue in the contests covered, but the outcomes could affect who writes and advances legislation. House Financial Services Committee chair French Hill has led efforts on crypto market-structure and stablecoin bills. Other candidates have ties to crypto policy, including digital-assets subcommittee chair Bryan Steil and crypto tax legislation champion Steven Horsford.
Crypto-focused political groups are also spending in selected races. Fairshake has backed candidates including Hill, Horsford and Steil, while the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund has spent against Brown and in support of Ashley Hinson in Iowa. The new Congress will determine which lawmakers hold influential posts and how crypto legislation moves through the chambers.
Frequently asked questions
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How many Senate seats do Democrats need to flip to control the chamber?
Democrats need to flip four seats. Republicans currently hold 53, while Democrats hold 45 and two independents caucus with Democrats.
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Which Senate contests are rated tossups?
The seven listed tossups are Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, Michigan, Texas, Iowa and Maine.
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How do prediction-market odds differ from polling?
Polls measure respondents' stated voting preferences. Prediction markets reflect bets on which candidates will win.
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Why could the election matter for crypto policy?
The new Congress will shape the path for crypto market-structure and stablecoin legislation, including through committee leadership.
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Which crypto-focused groups are spending in the races?
Fairshake has backed candidates including French Hill, Steven Horsford and Bryan Steil. The Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund has spent against Sherrod Brown and supported Ashley Hinson.
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