Seven Decades of S&P 500 Data: Which Political Makeup Actually Wins for Markets?

A deep dive into S&P 500 returns since 1953 reveals a counterintuitive picture: the most bullish setup for equities has historically been a Democratic president paired with a split or Republican-controlled Congress, averaging 16–17% annual returns. Republican sweeps come in second at 13.3% average — though that number is heavily skewed by a single 45% return in 1954. The worst outcome for stocks? A Republican president facing a fully Democratic Congress, where average annual returns drop to just 4.9%.

For Bitcoin, the data is thinner but still telling. Median returns under both full sweeps — Republican or Democratic — have actually been negative, dragged down by brutal drawdown years like 2018 (-74%) and 2022 (-64%). Split-Congress environments show the highest Bitcoin median returns, possibly because legislative gridlock reduces regulatory uncertainty. Gold, meanwhile, has performed…

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