CoinDesk
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick is making the bull case that bitcoin's low is effectively in, arguing that this week's pain — three straight weeks of net spot ETF outflows totalling $5 billion and roughly $1.5 billion in futures liquidations — has flushed leverage without breaking the structural bid. Cumulative net inflows into the 11 US spot ETFs are still sitting at $54.2 billion, broadly unchanged from earlier in 2026, with total BTC holdings moving only from roughly 682,000 down to 674,000. "ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February," Kendrick said.
Why it matters
The framing matters because the tape looks ugly at the surface — the worst sustained ETF redemptions since launch, and the first Strategy (MSTR) BTC sale in more than three years, which itself triggered a Polymarket dispute ruling. But Kendrick's three "ifs" reframe the flow story: Strategy's last BTC sale, in December 2022, was followed by a buyback of more than 100x the amount sold just two days later. He expects the same playbook this time around, and says a Monday confirmation of a meaningful repurchase would be a tentative signal the low is in.
The liquidations data backs that read — $1.5B in forced closes mirrors January's flush, and with BTC already deeply underperforming equities year-to-date, the pool of leveraged longs left to wipe out is materially smaller than at prior cycle lows.
Market impact
The 200-week simple moving average — the same level that has marked prior bitcoin bear-market bottoms — is now back in play as resistance-turned-support, and the weekly chart is beginning to echo the patterns that preceded prior reversals. "When we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted," Kendrick said. Accumulating into uncertainty rather than waiting for confirmation is the explicit trade he is recommending.
The risk is that any of the three pillars fails: Strategy doesn't repurchase on Monday, ETF outflows extend a fourth week, or a macro shock forces another leg of forced selling.
Frequently asked questions
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What is Standard Chartered's three-pillar bull case for bitcoin?
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, points to three signals: Strategy is expected to buy back 100x the 32 BTC it sold last week (echoing its December 2022 playbook), cumulative US spot ETF holdings remain broadly flat at $54.2B despite $5B in three-week outflows, and the $1.5B…
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How much have spot bitcoin ETFs really lost in the recent selloff?
The 11 US-listed spot ETFs have seen roughly $5 billion in net outflows over the past three weeks, but cumulative net inflows since launch are still at $54.2 billion — essentially where they stood earlier in 2026. Total BTC held has moved only from about 682,000 to 674,000.
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What did Strategy actually do with its bitcoin last week?
Strategy (MSTR) sold 32 BTC, its first sale in more than three years, which itself triggered a Polymarket dispute that ultimately ruled against bettors wagering a sale would happen by May 31. Kendrick expects a December 2022-style buyback, when the firm repurchased more than 100x what it had sold just two days earlier.
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Why is the 200-week moving average significant for bitcoin?
The 200-week simple moving average has marked the bottom of every prior bitcoin bear market, according to the CoinDesk weekly chart cited alongside Kendrick's note. With price now trading near that level, the historical pattern suggests the bottom may be close — though past performance is no guarantee of future…
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What price targets is Standard Chartered actually calling for?
Kendrick's framing is that current levels are the buying zone, with the explicit call that by year-end 2026 BTC will be at $100,000 and ETH at $4,000. The trade he is recommending is accumulating into current uncertainty rather than waiting for a confirmed bottom.
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