Standard Chartered: BTC low 'almost in' on three key signals

Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, argues the bitcoin bear market is approaching its final stages, resting his case on three converging signals. "I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted," Kendrick wrote.

Why it matters

Kendrick's three pillars: Strategy (MSTR) is expected to repeat its December 2022 playbook — when it last sold BTC it bought back more than it sold just two days later, and after offloading 32 BTC last week it could potentially buy back up to 100 times that amount. On ETFs, the 11 U.S. spot products have seen $5 billion in net outflows over three weeks, yet cumulative net inflows since inception remain at $54.2 billion — BTC holdings only slipped from 682k to 674k, which Kendrick calls "more structurally strong than I had feared in February." Finally, $1.5 billion in bitcoin futures liquidations have already cleared — a figure comparable to January's flush — leaving a materially smaller pool of leveraged longs to unwind.

Market impact

The technical picture reinforces the thesis: BTC is trading near its 200-week simple moving average, a level where previous bear markets have historically bottomed. Kendrick stops short of calling an exact floor, but frames the risk/reward as favouring accumulation over waiting for certainty. A confirmed Strategy buyback next Monday would, in his view, serve as a tentative signal that the low is in.