CryptoSlate
The BLS cut its estimates of July and August payroll gains by a combined 60,000 on Oct. 2. July flipped from a 21,000-job gain to a loss of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000. September payrolls grew by 29,000. The revisions adjust earlier estimates; they do not represent new September job losses.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month over month and 3.0% year over year, below the 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annual figures originally reported for August.
Why it matters
The softer payroll and wage figures weaken the labor-based case for another Federal Reserve rate hike. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on Sept. 16, to 3.75%–4%, and said job gains had kept pace with the workforce while inflation remained elevated. The latest report gives policymakers a less robust payroll picture than earlier estimates suggested.
But the inflation argument for tighter policy remains in place. August PCE inflation was 3.4% annually, or 3.0% excluding food and energy, both above the Fed’s 2% goal. That leaves policymakers weighing softer labor data against inflation that has not returned to target.
Market impact
For Bitcoin, a reduced prospect of higher rates could ease one source of pressure on speculative assets by lowering the threat of higher discount rates. The relationship is not automatic: a February 2023 New York Fed staff study found Bitcoin was largely unresponsive to monetary and macroeconomic surprises in an intraday event study.
The household survey also complicates the labor-market read. It estimated employment rose by 406,000, participation increased from 61.6% to 61.8%, and unemployment edged up from 4.1% to 4.2% as the labor force grew by 485,000. Those figures count people, not payroll jobs, and September’s changes fell below the BLS’s approximate significance thresholds for both surveys. The next jobs report is scheduled for Nov. 6.
Frequently asked questions
-
How did the BLS revise July and August payroll figures?
The BLS cut the two months’ estimates by a combined 60,000. July shifted from a 21,000-job gain to a loss of 10,000, and August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000.
-
What did the September employment report show for payrolls and wages?
Payrolls grew by 29,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month over month and 3.0% year over year.
-
Why does the report complicate the Fed’s rate outlook?
Weaker payroll and wage figures reduce the labor-based case for another hike, but August PCE inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% goal.
-
What did the household survey show about employment and unemployment?
It estimated employment rose by 406,000, participation increased from 61.6% to 61.8%, and unemployment edged up from 4.1% to 4.2% as the labor force grew.
-
How could the jobs report affect Bitcoin, and what limits that connection?
Less pressure for higher rates could ease one headwind for Bitcoin. A New York Fed staff study found Bitcoin was largely unresponsive to monetary and macroeconomic surprises in an intraday event study.
WatcherGuru
CoinDesk
Crypto Rank News
WuBlockchain
CoinTelegraph
TheBlock