CoinDesk
The White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has begun reviewing a proposed Commodity Futures Trading Commission rule on prediction markets, a key procedural step in the federal regulatory pipeline.
A RegInfo.gov entry shows the proposal was received on May 26 under Executive Order 12866, which governs how significant federal regulations are vetted before publication. The filing covers what the CFTC describes as a proposed rule on "Prediction Markets," though it does not include the rule text itself.
Why it matters
The review is one of the clearest signals yet that the CFTC is moving toward a broader federal framework for event contracts covering elections, gaming and sports — markets that have sat in legal limbo as state regulators push back. Illinois, New Jersey and other states have argued that sports-linked event contracts function as online betting and should be regulated under state gambling law, while Kalshi and the CFTC have held that designated contract markets under federal commodities law fall under the agency's exclusive authority.
The White House timing is itself part of the story. The OIRA review opened days after President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets on Truth Social, calling it "critically important" the agency retain control of the sector. A March advance notice had already asked the public which prediction-market contracts might be prohibited as "contrary to the public interest," including contracts tied to elections, gaming and sports.
Market impact
For Kalshi, Polymarket and the rest of the event-contract sector, a single federal framework replaces a patchwork of state-by-state legal fights that have kept some sports markets offline in certain jurisdictions. Investors will watch whether OIRA's review surfaces carve-outs for sports or election contracts — the categories most contested by state regulators — or whether the CFTC's "exclusive authority" framing holds through to publication.
The next hard date is the rule's eventual Federal Register publication; until then the proposal can still be narrowed, expanded or withdrawn.
Frequently asked questions
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What did the White House actually do on CFTC prediction-market rules?
The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs received a proposed CFTC rule on prediction markets on May 26 under Executive Order 12866, triggering the formal review step that major federal regulations must clear before publication.
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Why does a federal prediction-market rule matter for Kalshi and Polymarket?
A single CFTC framework would replace the patchwork of state-by-state legal fights that have kept some sports-linked event contracts offline in jurisdictions like Illinois and New Jersey, where regulators argue the products amount to online betting.
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What did President Trump say about CFTC authority over prediction markets?
On Truth Social, Trump publicly endorsed the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets, calling it "critically important" that the agency retain control of the sector.
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What is Executive Order 12866 and why does it apply here?
EO 12866 governs how significant federal regulations are vetted before publication, requiring agencies to submit major rules for economic and policy analysis by OIRA, a division within the Office of Management and Budget.
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What contracts are most likely to be contested in the rule?
A March advance notice asked the public which prediction-market contracts might be prohibited as contrary to the public interest, specifically calling out election, gaming and sports contracts — the same categories state regulators are fighting over.
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