CoinDesk
XRP's 90-day moving average of its realized profit-to-loss ratio has collapsed to 0.38, according to Glassnode data — meaning holders are taking in just 38 cents of profit for every dollar of losses they realize. The overwhelming majority of coins changing hands on-chain are underwater, a textbook sign of capitulation.
Why it matters
The 0.38 reading is a dramatic reversal from the 2025 peak, when the same ratio hit 50 — profit-takers outnumbered loss-sellers by 50 to 1 at the height of the cycle. A ratio this far below 1 reflects exhausted holders finally selling after prolonged pain, the kind of forced and fear-driven selling that historically clusters near the late stages of a downtrend. Capitulation does not guarantee an exact bottom, but it is one of the most reliable signals that a bear market is approaching exhaustion.
Market impact
XRP is trading around $1.11, down nearly 40% year-to-date and roughly 70% below its July peak above $3.60. For traders watching the on-chain data, the signal suggests the worst of the selling pressure may be close to running its course — but confirmation would require the ratio to stabilize and begin recovering toward 1, alongside a sustained price floor. Until then, the data frames the current environment as late-stage bear, not early recovery.
Frequently asked questions
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What does XRP's 0.38 profit-to-loss ratio actually mean for holders?
It means that for every dollar of losses XRP investors are realizing on-chain, they are collecting only 38 cents in profit — indicating the majority of coins currently changing hands were bought at higher prices and are being sold at a loss.
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How far has XRP fallen from its 2025 cycle peak?
XRP peaked above $3.60 in July 2024 and is currently trading around $1.11, a decline of roughly 70% from the peak and nearly 40% year-to-date.
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Does a capitulation signal mean XRP has bottomed?
Not necessarily. Capitulation frequently appears near the late stages of a downtrend, but confirmation of a bottom would require the profit-to-loss ratio to stabilize and recover toward 1 alongside a sustained price floor, neither of which has occurred yet.
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