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Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed employees to develop a prediction markets app modeled on Polymarket and Kalshi, The New York Times reported. The product would likely launch with a video game-style points system rather than cash, though Meta has not ruled out "eventual use of real money betting," per a person familiar with the plans.
Why it matters
Prediction markets have spent two years as a niche corner of crypto and TradFi, with Polymarket leaning on USDC settlement and Kalshi operating as a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Neither has consumer reach anywhere near Meta's scale. A Meta entry, even in points form, would reframe the category from speculative infra into a mainstream engagement surface, the kind of shift Zynga-style gaming mechanics produced for daily fantasy a decade earlier.
Market impact
The near-term read is on the existing prediction-market leaders rather than Meta itself. Polymarket and Kalshi benefit from the legitimacy halo a Big Tech entrant confers, but they also face a distribution problem they have never had to solve. Watch whether Polymarket accelerates its consumer push and whether Kalshi leans harder into regulated sports and election contracts, the verticals where Meta's audience is densest.
Frequently asked questions
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What prediction markets app is Meta building?
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed employees to build a prediction markets app modeled on Polymarket and Kalshi, The New York Times reported. The first version is expected to use a video game-style points system rather than cash, with real-money betting not ruled out for a later release.
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Will Meta's prediction markets app use real money?
The first iteration is expected to rely on a points system similar to a video game. A person familiar with the plans told the NYT Meta has not ruled out eventual real-money betting, but no timeline has been disclosed.
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How is Polymarket different from Kalshi?
Polymarket settles contracts in USDC and operates as a crypto-native platform with a primarily retail audience. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market offering regulated sports and election contracts to US users under federal oversight.
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Why does Meta entering prediction markets matter?
Polymarket and Kalshi have spent two years as a niche corner of crypto and TradFi. Meta's distribution across Instagram and Facebook gives it consumer reach neither incumbent can match, which could move prediction markets from speculative infrastructure into a mainstream engagement surface.
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What should Polymarket and Kalshi watch for next?
Both incumbents should watch for Meta accelerating into sports and election contracts, the two verticals where Meta's audience is densest. A Meta entry validates the category but also forces a distribution race neither has run before.
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