Bitcoin Bear Market Has 3 Months Left, Models Target Q4 2026 Bottom
An anonymous December 2023 post timing the October 2025 top to the day now lines up with a separate model pointing to a Q4 2026 bottom, both feeding the same cycle structure.
Bitcoin (BTC) is the first decentralized cryptocurrency, introduced in 2009 by an individual or group operating under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It runs on its own blockchain, the Bitcoin network, secured through a Proof of Work consensus mechanism in which miners use computing power to validate transactions and produce new blocks roughly every ten minutes. The protocol defines a hard cap of 21 million coins, and the block reward given to miners is automatically halved approximately every four years, embedding a predictable, disinflationary issuance schedule into the network. This scarcity, combined with permissionless access and resistance to censorship, has led many to characterize Bitcoin as a form of digital gold or a store of value distinct from traditional fiat currencies. Beyond peer-to-peer transfers, the Bitcoin ecosystem has expanded to include Ordinals, a method of inscribing data onto individual satoshis that enables NFT-like assets directly on the base layer, and BRC-20, an experimental fungible token standard built on those inscriptions. Emerging Bitcoin Finance (BTCFi) initiatives extend these capabilities further, allowing BTC to be used in staking, lending, and cross-chain security applications, positioning Bitcoin as a foundation for a broader decentralized financial ecosystem.
An anonymous December 2023 post timing the October 2025 top to the day now lines up with a separate model pointing to a Q4 2026 bottom, both feeding the same cycle structure.
The put-call ratio split tells the actual story: ETH traders opened more puts than calls, while BTC positioning stayed almost evenly balanced ahead of Friday's expiry.
Behind the sideways tape sits one of BTC's largest cost-basis clusters: roughly 6% of circulating supply last moved between $58K and $64K, building a support band the next breakout will have to clear…
The third-largest public bitcoin holder is studying how to tokenize its 43,000 BTC treasury into credit instruments with 24/7 settlement, a product category Japan has not yet seen at scale.
A market-structure bill that splits regulator jurisdiction over digital assets could land in the House as soon as next week, pulling regulatory clarity back to the front of the crypto agenda.
The plaintiffs ask courts to declare long-dormant Bitcoin abandoned, but the wallets that actually transacted while the case was pending expose the limits of an 'inactivity equals abandonment' theory…
1.1K $BTC (≈67.1M) moved from #Binance to #Ceffu.
Four Japanese firms are exploring a 24/7 market for Bitcoin-collateralized debt instruments with daily interest accrual, a structural piece of the country's tokenization push.
The 1.5% rally came on softer U.S. labor data that eased Treasury yields, but extreme-fear sentiment and a fifth straight day of spot ETF outflows show the move is fragile.
A smoother 50/100 MACD crossover has reliably called Bitcoin's prior drawdowns and bounces; clearing the 200-day near $71,147 is the line between a relief rally and a confirmed uptrend.
The institutional bid has sat out most of a month in which bitcoin traded between $59K and $66K without breaking either way. The flows are lagging the tape.
The simultaneous unwind hits on the same session: $95M out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, plus a $52M ETH fund pull that ends a five-day run of net inflows.
Bitcoin's correlation with JPY cuts both ways: when the yen jumps on hawkish BOJ speculation or intervention fears, BTC/JPY underperforms BTC/USD even as dollar-denominated BTC keeps climbing.
The 4.2% weekly gain came without any crypto-specific catalyst; the tape is reading Asian semis and a sliding dollar, which means the next leg depends on whether the AI trade holds.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled a record quarter of outflows and the Bitwise 10 fell 15.4%, yet prediction markets, tokenized RWAs, and stablecoin settlement all hit fresh highs in the same stretch.
The pitch isn't that Bitcoin moons, it's that Strategy's capital structure can absorb flat BTC for decades, which reframes MSTR as a duration play on Treasury debt, not a levered bet on price.
A 2009 forum post in which Satoshi explained Bitcoin's fixed-supply mechanics is back in circulation, framing scarcity as a function of demand rather than issuance.
1K $BTC (≈66M) moved from #OKEX to unknown wallet.
The bond had cleared Moody's with a Ba2 rating and would have been the first state-backed debt tied to a public miner; the rejection does not change New Hampshire's broader crypto posture.
Bitwise's research note argues institutional dip-buying is structurally lifting bitcoin's price floor, even with regulatory clarity delayed and AI capital competing for the same allocator wallet.
Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin (BTC) launched on 2009-01-03.
Bitcoin (BTC) is categorised as: Smart Contract Platform, Layer 1 (L1), FTX Holdings.
The official Bitcoin site is http://www.bitcoin.org.
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