CoinDesk
Bitcoin's weekly RSI sits at 34.00, still well below the 41.5 threshold that has historically separated bull and bear market regimes across multiple cycles, according to crypto analytics platform Material Indicators. Until that level is reclaimed, the burden of proof remains on the bulls.
Why it matters
The 41.5 RSI level is not an arbitrary line. It held above that mark throughout the 2020-21 and 2015-17 bull markets, and again during the January 2024 to November 2025 run. Conversely, the deepest phases of bear markets — late 2018, May through December 2022, and the current stretch — have all seen the weekly RSI trade below it. "Right now, Bitcoin is below it, and still trending down," Material Indicators analyst Keith Alan said. "That does not mean price has to collapse, but it does mean the burden of proof is still on the bulls."
Market impact
With BTC trading near $63,000 and the weekly RSI at 34.00, the immediate downside marker to watch is 31.89 — the prior weekly reading. A break below that level would signal further price losses ahead. A recovery above 41.5, by contrast, would be the first meaningful confirmation that the broader trend is turning and that a genuine bottom is in. Until one of those two outcomes resolves, the current bounce remains a relief rally candidate, not a confirmed reversal.
Frequently asked questions
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What RSI level does Bitcoin need to reclaim to confirm a bull market bottom?
According to Material Indicators, Bitcoin's weekly RSI needs to recover above 41.5 to provide the first meaningful confirmation that the broader trend has turned bullish and that a genuine bottom is in place.
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What happens if Bitcoin's weekly RSI falls below 31.89?
Analyst Keith Alan of Material Indicators says a drop below 31.89 — the prior weekly RSI reading — would signal further price losses ahead for Bitcoin.
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How reliable is the 41.5 weekly RSI level as a bull/bear dividing line for BTC?
The level has held across multiple cycles: the weekly RSI stayed above 41.5 during the 2015-17, 2020-21, and 2024-2025 bull runs, while the deepest bear phases in 2018, 2022, and recent months all saw it trade below that threshold.
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