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Polymarket prices zero Fed rate cuts for 2026 after market odds plunged, while Goldman Sachs pushed its forecast for the next cut from October to December. Goldman said there is “a strong chance” the FOMC will conclude additional rate hikes are unnecessary.
Why it matters
The shift reflects a tougher outlook for rate cuts, but Goldman’s view that further hikes may not be needed leaves the Fed’s next move uncertain. The bank also said it expects 3.0% growth based on the latest inflation report.
Market impact
For markets, the repricing raises the prospect of rates staying higher for longer, a factor investors track across bonds, equities and other risk assets. The gap between zero cuts priced on Polymarket and Goldman’s forecast of a December cut puts inflation and the Fed’s next decisions in focus.
Frequently asked questions
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What rate-cut odds does Polymarket price for 2026?
Polymarket prices zero Fed rate cuts for 2026, following a plunge in market odds.
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How did Goldman Sachs change its forecast for the next Fed cut?
Goldman pushed its forecast for the next cut from October to December.
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Does Goldman expect the Fed to raise rates again?
Goldman sees a strong chance the FOMC will conclude that additional rate hikes are unnecessary.
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What growth outlook did Goldman cite?
Goldman said it expects 3.0% growth based on the latest inflation report.
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Why does the rate-cut repricing matter to investors?
The shift raises the prospect of rates staying higher for longer, a factor investors track across bonds, equities and other risk assets.
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