TheBlock
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $696 million in net redemptions on June 25, extending the outflow streak to six consecutive days. The selling pressure landed the same session core PCE inflation printed at 3.4% year-over-year, a sticky reading that gives the Federal Reserve room to keep policy restrictive.
Why it matters
The macro tape is doing what BTC bulls did not want it to do: keep the Fed in hawkish posture while ETF flows, the structural bid under the last leg up, turn into a sustained drag. A $696M single-day outflow against a 3.4% core PCE print removes both the liquidity cushion and the rate-cut catalyst in the same session.
Market impact
Analysts flagged the 4-year rolling realized price risk/reward ratio as evidence BTC may not be near a cycle bottom. The combination of six straight days of ETF redemptions and an inflation print that holds the Fed's hand on rates leaves little near-term support for a structural reversal. Watch the next core PCE release and whether ETF flows flip positive before any thesis change.
Frequently asked questions
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How much did spot Bitcoin ETFs outflow on June 25?
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $696 million in net redemptions on June 25, extending the outflow streak to six consecutive days.
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What did the core PCE inflation print show?
Core PCE inflation held at 3.4% year-over-year, a sticky reading that gives the Federal Reserve room to maintain its restrictive policy stance.
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Why do analysts say the cycle bottom may not be in?
Analysts pointed to the 4-year rolling realized price risk/reward ratio as evidence that BTC may not be near a cycle bottom, especially with ETF flows turning into a sustained drag against a hawkish Fed backdrop.
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How long has the spot ETF outflow streak lasted?
The outflow streak extended to six consecutive days as of June 25, a sustained reversal of the structural bid that supported BTC's prior leg up.
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What would change the bearish thesis?
A softer core PCE release that opens the door to Fed rate cuts, or a flip back to net positive spot ETF inflows, would be the two clearest signals that the bearish setup is loosening.
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