Polymarket Captures 93% of Political Prediction Market Share
The crypto-based exchange now dominates a category increasingly tied to election coverage and tradfi hedging flows.
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The crypto-based exchange now dominates a category increasingly tied to election coverage and tradfi hedging flows.
Kalshi's share of crypto-related prediction market volume jumped to 79% by end of Q2, up 42% since April, while Polymarket retains the deeper crypto-native user base.
BSC took DEX flow, Tron took stablecoins, Bitcoin took collateral, Base took L2 activity, and Hyperliquid took perps. Ethereum's dominance is being chipped away, market by market.
The CEX duo still dominates volumes, but the share of perpetual futures open interest sitting on DEXs has nearly quadrupled since early 2025 — a structural shift in where leverage now lives.