Kalshi became the leader in crypto-related prediction markets by volume in Q2, with its market share rising 42% since April to reach 79% by the end of June. The shift puts the CFTC-regulated venue ahead of Polymarket on raw trading flow, even as Polymarket remains the more established crypto-native platform.
Why it matters
The gap between regulatory legitimacy and crypto-native liquidity has long been the fault line in US prediction markets. Kalshi operates as a designated contract market under CFTC oversight, which has let it onboard US retail and institutional flow that Polymarket, constrained by US-access restrictions, cannot directly capture. The Q2 share jump suggests the institutional leg is now actively routing volume rather than just sitting on the sidelines.
Market impact
Higher-velocity flow on Kalshi is increasingly setting the price signal for event contracts tied to crypto price levels, Fed decisions, and regulatory milestones. Polymarket's depth on politically charged and crypto-native event questions still matters, but the trading cadence is now tilted toward the regulated venue. Watch whether Polymarket responds with US-access workarounds, and whether Kalshi's share holds when the next high-volatility event cycle compresses spreads across both venues.
Source: [source](http://telegraph.controller.bot/files/8336652911/AgACAgIAAxkBAAI-_WpLdwmAMOlsd73Ui9FuNotcpajdAAK1IWsbjEpZSnlr2MU8XFLyAQADAgADeQADPAQ)
Frequently asked questions
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What share of crypto prediction market volume does Kalshi hold?
Kalshi reached 79% of crypto-related prediction market volume by the end of June, up 42% since April.
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Why is Kalshi beating Polymarket in trading flow?
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated venue, letting it onboard US retail and institutional flow that Polymarket's access restrictions block.
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Does Polymarket still lead on any segment?
Polymarket remains the more established crypto-native platform and retains depth on politically charged and crypto-native event questions.
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What kind of event contracts does Kalshi's flow set the price on?
Higher-velocity Kalshi volume increasingly sets the price signal for contracts tied to crypto price levels, Fed decisions, and regulatory milestones.
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Could Polymarket close the gap with Kalshi?
Watch for Polymarket US-access workarounds and whether Kalshi's 79% share holds through the next high-volatility event cycle.
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