CryptoSlate
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $83,500 on Sept. 23 as the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed 15 basis points to 5.11%. The 10-year real yield accounted for 13 basis points of that move, rising from 2.63% to 2.76%, while a stronger S&P Global composite PMI jumped to 58.4 from 56.0. Bitcoin is now testing Glassnode’s $84,000 to $85,000 support zone.
Why it matters
Higher real yields increase the inflation-adjusted return available from government debt and raise the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, which pays no yield. The PMI’s strongest expansion reading since July 2021 also points to an economy running hot, potentially leaving the Federal Reserve less room to ease. The move followed the Fed’s Sept. 16 rate hike to a 3.75% to 4.00% target range.
Bitcoin’s drop below $84,000 coincided with roughly $280 million in long liquidations. But ETF demand has not disappeared: Glassnode recorded about $1.3 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over five days, ending two weeks of outflows. Farside figures show inflows continued through Sept. 23, though they slowed from the prior session.
Market impact
Glassnode identifies $84,000 to $85,000 as the nearest support, where a large cluster of long-term holders acquired Bitcoin. An intraday dip below $84,000 does not by itself break that structure; sustained daily closes below the zone would put the $77,000 True Market Mean into focus. The next major resistance is $96,700.
The market’s next direction depends partly on whether real yields retreat or keep climbing. A return below roughly 2.65%, alongside positive ETF flows and stronger spot volume on up days, would support the case for a recovery. If real yields extend toward 2.85% to 2.90% and Bitcoin loses support on sustained closes, the $77,000 reference becomes more relevant. About $16 billion in Bitcoin options are due to expire on Deribit Friday, alongside US durable goods and consumer sentiment data and CME’s September Bitcoin futures settlement.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did higher US real yields pressure Bitcoin?
Real yields rose from 2.63% to 2.76%, increasing the inflation-adjusted return available from government debt and the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, which pays no yield.
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Which Bitcoin price zone does Glassnode identify as nearest support?
Glassnode identifies $84,000 to $85,000 as the nearest support zone, where a large cluster of long-term holders acquired Bitcoin.
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What level comes into focus if Bitcoin loses the $84,000 to $85,000 zone?
Sustained daily closes below the support zone would bring the $77,000 True Market Mean into focus. An intraday dip below $84,000 alone does not break the structure.
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Did spot Bitcoin ETF inflows stop during the bond selloff?
No. Farside figures show ETF inflows persisted through Sept. 23, although they slowed from the prior session. Glassnode recorded about $1.3 billion in inflows over five days.
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What events could add to Bitcoin volatility on Friday?
About $16 billion in Bitcoin options are due to expire on Deribit, alongside US durable goods and consumer sentiment data and CME’s September Bitcoin futures settlement.
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