CoinDesk
Bitcoin could break below $60,000 and slide to $55,000 before carving out the low of this cycle, according to Markus Thielen, the analyst behind 10x Research. His call hinges on a strengthening U.S. dollar and a hawkish turn at the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with markets now debating whether the next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut.
Thielen pointed to three converging signals that point to a late-August-to-October bottom window. A model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity, which he said correctly flagged a March buying opportunity and an April exit, signals late August as the next inflection date. Bitcoin's seasonal pattern puts September among its weakest months, historically followed by stronger October returns. The timing also lines up with two closely watched Fed meetings in September and October, the U.S. midterm elections and the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing announcement in early November.
Why it matters
A hawkish-Fed-plus-strong-dollar backdrop is the macro combination that has historically punished risk assets, and bitcoin is now trading in that frame. A cycle-low call to $55,000 from current levels is a meaningful drawdown, but the more actionable part of the note is the timing: Thielen's own line is patience now, attention in late August. The convergence of a liquidity model, a seasonal pattern and a dense macro calendar gives the thesis a defined window rather than an open-ended bear case.
Market impact
A confirmed break below $60,000 would reset leverage and likely flush late longs, while a $55,000 low would mark a deeper correction than the spring dip. May's combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024, a sign that traders are already pulling back. RWA perpetual futures volumes told the opposite story, rising 10.4% against the trend to a new all-time high, suggesting capital is rotating rather than leaving the market entirely. The next read is whether the dollar extends its rally into the September Fed meeting and whether global liquidity inflects on Thielen's late-August window.
Frequently asked questions
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What is 10x Research's Bitcoin price target?
Analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research sees Bitcoin breaking below $60,000 and sliding to $55,000 before carving out the low of this cycle, with a late-August-to-October bottom window.
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Why does Thielen expect Bitcoin to fall further?
His call rests on a strengthening U.S. dollar and a hawkish turn at the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with markets debating whether the next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut.
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When does 10x Research expect a Bitcoin bottom?
Thielen points to a late-August-to-October window, anchored on a global-liquidity rate-of-change model, Bitcoin's historical September weakness, and a dense macro calendar including two Fed meetings and the Treasury's quarterly refinancing announcement.
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What is the Fed's stance under Chair Kevin Warsh?
Markets are increasingly debating whether the Fed's next move under Chair Kevin Warsh could be a rate hike rather than a cut, a backdrop that has supported the dollar and weighed on risk assets including Bitcoin.
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How are crypto trading volumes behaving?
May combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024, while RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend to a new all-time high.
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