CoinDesk
Bitcoin briefly punched back above $80,000 this week before sliding under it again as on-chain data showed short-term holders cashing out at the fastest pace since December. CryptoQuant said the 37% rebound from April lows looks more like a bear-market relief rally than a confirmed trend reversal, with realized profits spiking and recent buyers increasingly exiting into strength rather than holding for continuation.
Why it matters
The split read across CryptoQuant, Enflux, and Glassnode captures exactly where the market sits: fragile, macro-driven, and not yet a clean breakout. CryptoQuant flagged that traders are sitting on an 18% unrealized profit margin — the highest since June 2025 — a level where profit-taking has historically accelerated. Singapore-based market maker Enflux tied the initial push through $80,000 to a risk-on reaction after President Trump paused a U.S. naval operation tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, but warned that previous Trump diplomatic pauses since March either reversed within days or were misread by traders. Glassnode offered a more constructive take, noting bitcoin reclaimed the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,100 — levels that often divide weaker and stronger regimes.
Market impact
Glassnode identified roughly $85,200 as the next major resistance zone, with improving U.S. spot ETF inflows and persistently negative perpetual funding pointing to traders still positioned for downside. Long-term holders have begun realizing profits, elevated realized losses across the broader market suggest bitcoin needs stronger spot demand to sustain a durable move higher, and Polymarket traders are assigning low odds to a clean push toward $85,000 this week. Until that level gives way, the tape reads as a macro-driven bounce running into a wall of profit-taking rather than a confirmed bull cycle.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did bitcoin slip below $80,000 this week?
CryptoQuant said short-term holders realized profits at the fastest pace since December, with realized profits spiking as recent buyers exited into the rebound from April lows rather than holding for continuation.
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What did CryptoQuant say about the 37% rebound from April lows?
CryptoQuant framed the move as a bear-market relief rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal, noting realized profits hit their highest level since December and traders sit on an 18% unrealized profit margin — the highest since June 2025.
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How did Enflux explain the push above $80,000?
Singapore-based market maker Enflux tied the move to a risk-on reaction after President Trump paused a U.S. naval operation tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil lower and lifted equities.
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What key levels is Glassnode watching?
Glassnode said bitcoin reclaimed the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,100, and identified roughly $85,200 as the next major resistance zone.
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What are prediction markets saying about a move to $85,000?
On Polymarket, traders assigned relatively low odds to bitcoin extending cleanly toward $85,000 or beyond this week, signaling the market remains hesitant to treat the rebound as a confirmed breakout.
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