CryptoSlate
Bitcoin traded near $62,200 on Tuesday, down roughly 3% over 24 hours, ahead of a 90-minute window that compresses two of the highest-impact events of the month into a single trading day. June CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET with headline forecasts near 3.8% year over year against May's 4.2%, before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces the House Financial Services Committee for his first semiannual testimony.
Why it matters
The headline number is expected to soften because gasoline fell about 10% in June after the Strait of Hormuz reopened during the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. That benefit has now reversed: over the weekend President Donald Trump reinstated the blockade on Iranian shipping and demanded a 20% fee on cargo moving through the waterway. Oil settled more than 9% higher on Monday, with Brent closing at $83.30 and WTI at $78.14, then Brent climbed above $87 in Tuesday's session after starting July near $67. Core CPI, forecast between 2.8% and 2.9%, barely moves and is what the Fed will read against.
Money markets now price a 40% to 50% probability of a rate hike at the July 28-29 meeting, a sharp jump from roughly 10% at the start of last week. The two-year Treasury yield has risen to about 4.28%, its highest since early 2025, while the 10-year sits above 4.6%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller opened the door last week, saying the central bank may need to raise rates if core inflation runs hot, and the June 17 meeting minutes showed a few participants saw a case for tightening at the time.
Market impact
Warsh has spent his first two months trimming the FOMC's signal kit, cutting the statement to about 130 words, removing forward guidance, and declining to submit his own dot. The questions he fields today carry more weight than usual, and he can frame a sub-4% headline as real progress or point at sticky core, $85 Brent, and tariffs and call the June improvement an artifact of a defunct ceasefire. Spot Bitcoin ETFs already recorded $424.7 million in net outflows on Monday, and hawkish language tightening financial conditions would drain the far end of the risk curve.
Frequently asked questions
-
Why is today such a big day for Bitcoin?
Two high-impact events land within 90 minutes of each other: the June CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first semiannual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
-
What are economists expecting from the June CPI print?
Headline CPI is forecast near 3.8% year over year against May's 4.2%, driven mainly by gasoline falling about 10% during the June Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI is seen between 2.8% and 2.9%, barely changed from May.
-
Why is the headline CPI drop potentially misleading?
Almost all of the improvement comes from energy. Over the weekend Trump reinstated the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Brent has climbed above $87 after starting July near $67, and the June ceasefire that drove cheap gas no longer exists.
-
What are money markets pricing in for the July Fed meeting?
Per CME FedWatch and Bloomberg, a 40% to 50% probability of a rate hike at the July 28-29 meeting, up from roughly 10% at the start of the prior week, after Fed Governor Waller warned the Fed may need to raise rates if core runs hot.
-
What Bitcoin levels matter most after the events?
A reclaim and hold of $64,000 would signal the market read the day as relief. A break below $61,700 exposes $60,000 as the next major support level, with risk appetite already soft after $424.7M in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on Monday.
CoinDesk
CoinTelegraph
WuBlockchain
Crypto News
WatcherGuru
TheBlock