Glassnode
Glassnode's long-term holder supply-in-loss metric climbed to 5.58 million BTC, the highest reading since the Covid-era capitulation in March 2020. Long-term holders, defined by Glassnode as entities whose averaged purchasing date sits past the 155-day logistic threshold, are now sitting on more underwater coins than at any point in the last five years.
Why it matters
The supply-in-loss reading captures coins whose last-mover cost basis is above spot. When long-term holders dominate that figure, it usually marks a phase where weak hands have already exited and the remaining underwater cohort is structurally slower to sell. Glassnode's definition weights holder status by a logistic function centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width, so this bucket tracks conviction buyers rather than recent entrants.
Market impact
The reading comes with price sliding below $60,000, and the resolution window is widening rather than narrowing. Historically, peaks in long-term holder supply-in-loss have preceded bottoms by several months, because these holders absorb selling pressure slowly instead of capitulating in a single flush. With 5.58 million BTC now in this bucket, the structural overhead on price extends until either spot reclaims their cost basis or the cohort finally capitulates into a deeper flush.
Source: [Title: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss Chart - Glassnode](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/supply.LthLossSum?a=BTC&c=native&s=1398816000&u=1780531200&zoom=)
Frequently asked questions
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What is Glassnode's long-term holder supply-in-loss metric?
It measures the total amount of circulating Bitcoin supply currently held at a loss by long-term holders. Glassnode defines this cohort via an entity's averaged purchasing date, weighted by a logistic function centered at 155 days with a 10-day transition width.
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How much BTC are long-term holders currently sitting on at a loss?
Glassnode's latest reading shows 5.58 million BTC held at a loss by long-term holders, the highest level since the March 2020 Covid-era unwind.
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Why does long-term holder supply in loss matter for Bitcoin price?
It signals the depth of underwater conviction buyers. When the metric peaks, those holders absorb selling slowly rather than capitulating fast, which historically extends the bottoming process and prolongs price overhead until spot reclaims their cost basis.
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How is a long-term holder defined versus a short-term holder?
Glassnode uses a logistic age threshold at 155 days with a 10-day transition width. Entities whose averaged purchase date sits past that band are classified as long-term holders, tracking conviction buyers rather than recent entrants.
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What was the previous comparable peak in this metric?
The previous comparable peak was during the March 2020 Covid-era crash, before the current reading of 5.58 million BTC surpassed it as the highest in roughly five years.
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