TheBlock
Polymarket bettors put Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate at 76% and the House at 94% as polls closed in the U.S. midterm elections. Kalshi showed similar odds: 75% for the Senate and 94% for the House. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are being contested.
Why it matters
A change in control could give Democrats leadership of key committees and greater influence over the agenda. That could bring lawmakers including Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown into prominent oversight roles, with scrutiny of digital-asset issues potentially increasing and crypto legislation receiving less attention, according to experts cited by The Block last month.
The political stakes also include oversight of President Donald Trump’s crypto wealth through his family’s World Liberty Financial. In Ohio, Kalshi bettors gave former Sen. Sherrod Brown a 71% chance of defeating incumbent Jon Husted. Sen. Cory Booker, who has focused on crypto legislation, had a 98% chance of winning his race on Kalshi.
Market impact
The odds are signals from bettors, not election results. Prediction markets grew during the 2024 presidential election and drew comparisons with national polling, but election trading has since cooled: politics made up just 1% of trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket in October, down from more than 60% during the 2024 election, Bloomberg reported.
For crypto, the key takeaway is the possibility of a congressional agenda more focused on oversight than legislation. The eventual balance of power will determine whether those prediction-market odds translate into committee leadership and a different approach to digital-asset policy.
Frequently asked questions
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What odds did Polymarket give Democrats in the midterm races?
Polymarket bettors gave Democrats a 94% chance of taking the House and a 76% chance of taking the Senate.
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How did Kalshi's congressional odds compare?
Kalshi bettors gave Democrats a 94% chance of controlling the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate.
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Why could a Democratic shift matter for crypto policy?
Democrats could lead key committees, potentially increasing oversight of digital-asset issues while reducing the emphasis on crypto legislation.
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Which crypto-related political races were highlighted?
Kalshi bettors gave Sherrod Brown a 71% chance of defeating Jon Husted in Ohio and Cory Booker a 98% chance of winning his race.
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How much of prediction-market trading was political in October?
Politics accounted for 1% of trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket in October, down from more than 60% during the 2024 election.
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