A recent technical analysis clip projects gold will likely trade softer into mid-September to mid-October, with any weakness tied to a stronger US dollar. The base case is a higher low in that window followed by a renewed bid.
The analyst noted that even a lower low would not invalidate the broader thesis. A retest of the prevailing trendline, or a sweep of the June low, would actually mirror the 2018 and 2022 setups where the major low formed in late September or October.
That historical framing, dollar strength pulling gold into a known seasonal window, is the key read for traders sizing positions into Q3.
Frequently asked questions
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Why might gold weaken into mid-October?
The analyst attributes any short-term softness to a stronger US dollar, reflecting the typical inverse relationship between the two assets.
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What does the analyst expect after a potential pullback?
The base case is a higher low in mid-September to mid-October followed by a renewed move higher into year-end.
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What historical setups is the analyst comparing to?
The 2018 and 2022 cycles, where gold's major low formed in late September or October before resuming its broader uptrend.
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Would a lower low invalidate the bullish thesis?
No. The analyst said a retest of trendline support or a sweep of the June low would actually mirror the historical seasonal pattern.
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What would change the analyst's framing?
A decisive close below the June low combined with sustained dollar strength would be needed to flip the seasonal roadmap into a bear case.
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