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Joshua Riezman, Chief Legal and Strategy Officer at GSR, put the odds of the Clarity Act clearing Congress and reaching the president's desk this session at below 50%, pointing to a legislative standoff over stablecoin yield and unresolved ethics concerns tied to the president's family.
Riezman's assessment cuts against Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal's public prediction that the bill will pass this summer, exposing a real split inside the industry on how close lawmakers actually are to finalizing crypto market structure legislation.
Why it matters
The Clarity Act is the keystone of the U.S. digital-asset legislative agenda this session — the bill that would draw the market-structure lines between the SEC and CFTC, define stablecoin issuer obligations, and set the rules of the road for tokenized assets. A sub-50% probability is not a no, but it materially shifts the base case from "when" to "whether this Congress."
The yield question is the technical fault line: a coalition wants issuers allowed to pass yield through to tokenholders, while bank-aligned lawmakers argue that turns stablecoins into a deposit substitute. Ethics concerns tied to the president's family add a separate political layer that has slowed momentum on multiple crypto bills.
Market impact
A delayed or shelved Clarity Act would leave U.S. crypto market structure operating on enforcement-by-agency rather than statute through at least the next legislative window — bearish for the regulatory clarity premium that institutional desks have been pricing since the 2024 election cycle. Watch the Senate Banking Committee markup calendar and any floor-schedule movement as the next catalyst; absent movement before the August recess, the sub-50% read starts to harden into the consensus.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Clarity Act?
The Clarity Act is the centerpiece U.S. digital-asset market-structure bill this session. It would divide regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, define stablecoin issuer obligations, and establish rules for tokenized assets and crypto trading platforms.
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Why does GSR's legal chief think the bill won't pass?
Joshua Riezman cited a Congressional standoff over whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to pass yield through to tokenholders, plus unresolved ethics concerns tied to the president's family that have slowed momentum on multiple crypto bills.
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What is the stablecoin yield fight about?
A coalition wants issuers permitted to share yield with tokenholders, while bank-aligned lawmakers argue that turns stablecoins into a deposit substitute and threatens the traditional banking franchise. The dispute has not been resolved.
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How does this differ from Coinbase's outlook?
Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal has publicly predicted the Clarity Act will pass this summer. Riezman's sub-50% assessment directly contradicts that view, exposing a split inside the crypto industry on timing and likelihood.
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What would a delayed or shelved Clarity Act mean for markets?
U.S. crypto would continue to operate on agency enforcement rather than statute for at least another legislative window, which is bearish for the regulatory-clarity premium institutional desks have been pricing since the 2024 election cycle. Watch the Senate Banking Committee markup calendar for the next catalyst.
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