TheBlock
Kalshi is in talks to raise fresh capital at a $40 billion valuation, a round that could close as early as Q3 2025, the Financial Times reported.
The proposed valuation marks an 8x jump from the $5 billion mark Kalshi hit in October 2024, the steepest repricing in the US-regulated prediction-market space. The venue has scaled volume rapidly since the CFTC cleared its event-contract framework, drawing both retail flow on headline binaries and a growing institutional book hedging macro and political outcomes.
Why it matters
Prediction markets have moved from regulatory curiosity to allocatable asset class in under two years. A $40B private mark on a federally regulated US exchange reframes the category for the next round of entrants, including Polymarket's offshore relaunch and any TradFi desk that has been waiting for a multiple to anchor against. It also raises the stakes for the SEC-CFTC jurisdictional fight over event contracts: the bigger Kalshi gets, the louder the argument over who supervises it.
Market impact
A confirmed close at $40B would ripple through private-market comps for the entire event-contract stack, including smaller venues and infrastructure providers. Public-market proxy reads are limited, but the implied revenue multiple frames the case for any prediction-market platform pursuing a US listing in 2026.
Frequently asked questions
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What is Kalshi's reported new valuation?
Kalshi is in talks to raise capital at a $40 billion valuation, with the round potentially closing as early as Q3 2025, per the Financial Times.
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How does this compare to Kalshi's last reported valuation?
The proposed $40B mark is an 8x increase over the $5 billion valuation Kalshi reported in October 2024.
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Why are prediction markets attracting institutional interest?
Kalshi has scaled volume quickly since the CFTC cleared its event-contract framework, drawing both retail flow on headline binaries and institutional hedging activity on macro and political outcomes.
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What regulatory questions surround Kalshi's growth?
Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight as a federally regulated exchange, but the SEC-CFTC jurisdictional fight over event contracts is likely to intensify as the platform grows.
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Who are Kalshi's main competitors in the prediction-market space?
Polymarket is the most prominent rival, with a planned US relaunch. Any confirmed close at $40B would also set a private-market multiple that smaller venues and infrastructure providers are measured against.
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