TheBlock
Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US reported combined monthly volume of $44.8 billion in June, up 75% from May's $25.66 billion. The surge tracks the FIFA World Cup, which has drawn millions of dollars in bets on outcome markets across both venues.
Why it matters
Kalshi drove the print, with monthly volume rising 87.4% to $31.5 billion from $16.81 billion in May. That single-platform growth exceeds the combined volume of Polymarket and Polymarket US, a split that highlights how much of the prediction-market boom is concentrated in the federally regulated US venue rather than the offshore pair.
Market impact
June now stands as the second-highest monthly volume print on record for the combined market, behind only the 2024 US election cycle. World Cup markets have accounted for the bulk of incremental flow, with bettors pricing every fixture, group stage advancement, and outright winner. Whether the venues can retain that activity once the tournament ends, or whether June proves to be a one-off seasonal spike, is the open question the rest of the year will answer.
Frequently asked questions
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Which prediction markets are included in the $44.8B June volume figure?
Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US. Kalshi alone accounted for $31.5B of the total, with Polymarket and Polymarket US making up the remainder.
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How much did prediction-market volume grow from May to June?
Combined monthly volume rose 75%, from $25.66B in May to $44.8B in June, with Kalshi's volume alone growing 87.4% MoM.
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Why did prediction-market volume surge in June?
The FIFA World Cup drove the move, drawing millions of dollars in bets on outcome markets across Kalshi and the Polymarket pair, including match results, group advancement, and outright winner pricing.
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Where does June rank in prediction-market history?
June's $44.8B combined print is the second-highest monthly volume on record for the market, behind only the 2024 US election cycle.
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Will prediction-market volume stay elevated after the World Cup?
That is the open question. If activity holds after the tournament final, the surge looks structural; if volume reverts in July, June reads as a seasonal spike layered on top of an already-growing baseline.
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