CoinDesk
The Nevada Gaming Control Board is pushing back on claims from prediction-market conference Predict 2026 that the regulator pressured ARIA Resort & Casino in Las Vegas to drop the event, forcing it to relocate to New York. A spokesperson for the Board told CoinDesk it "did not direct, request, or otherwise pressure any licensee or venue to cancel or decline to host any recent or upcoming event or conference, as has been suggested."
Predict 2026 founder Ish Milly disputed the framing in a separate statement, noting that the inaugural conference earlier this month was held in Las Vegas at a non-casino hotel and that a second edition is already booked for November, again in Las Vegas. The venue, Milly said, is "off the strip and not in a casino," underscoring that no gaming licensee was directly involved in hosting the inaugural event.
The Board's spokesperson also stressed that "gaming licensees are expected to adhere to all federal, state, and local statutes and ordinances and prevent any occurrences that may bring discredit to the state or the gaming industry" — language that leaves the door open to informal scrutiny even without an explicit directive.
Why it matters
The public back-and-forth lands against an active legal fight. In April, a Nevada judge ruled that Kalshi's prediction markets were "indistinguishable" from gambling and extended an in-state ban on the platform. The state remains one of the most aggressive in challenging the classification of event-contract platforms as financial products rather than wagering. The CFTC, which oversees designated contract markets, holds a different view: chair Michael Selig told Axios that sports betting and prediction markets are "two separate things," and said the agency is working with major sports leagues on surveillance and market-integrity measures.
Market impact
The conference venue itself is small relative to the underlying industry question. Predict 2026's November Las Vegas edition — confirmed by Milly — signals that the event is not leaving Nevada regardless of the public dispute.
Frequently asked questions
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Did Nevada regulators actually pressure ARIA to drop Predict 2026?
The Nevada Gaming Control Board publicly denies it. A spokesperson told CoinDesk the Board "did not direct, request, or otherwise pressure any licensee or venue to cancel or decline to host" the conference, contradicting the framing from the event's organisers.
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Why did Predict 2026 move to New York from Las Vegas?
Organisers cited "regulatory pressure" from the Nevada Gaming Control Board as the reason. Founder Ish Milly says the inaugural event was still held in Las Vegas at a non-casino hotel off the Strip, and a second edition is already booked there for November.
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What is the status of the Kalshi case in Nevada?
In April, a Nevada judge ruled Kalshi's prediction markets were "indistinguishable" from gambling and extended an in-state ban on the platform. The state remains in active litigation with the prediction-market industry over whether event contracts are gambling.
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Where does the CFTC stand on prediction markets vs sports betting?
CFTC chair Michael Selig told Axios that sports betting and prediction markets are "two separate things." He said the agency is working with major sports leagues on market surveillance and integrity measures, signalling a federal posture that diverges from Nevada's.
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Does this dispute change Polymarket or Kalshi access in the US?
Not directly. Predict 2026's venue is a small piece of the picture; the binding constraint on US access remains the split between CFTC federal oversight and state-level gambling rulings like Nevada's Kalshi ban.
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