Polymarket Prices 25bp Fed Hike at 62% for September

Frequently asked questions

1. What is the main alternative to a 25bp Fed hike in Polymarket's September pricing?

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   A no-change decision carries a 39% probability, making it the only other displayed outcome with material weight.

2. How are larger hikes and cuts priced for the September meeting?

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   A 50-basis-point-or-larger hike, a 25-basis-point cut and a 50-basis-point-or-larger cut are each below 1%.

3. Why do Polymarket, Kalshi and CME FedWatch show different odds?

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   The readings come from different venues and dates. On September 8, hike probabilities were 49% on Polymarket, 48% on Kalshi and nearly 56% on CME FedWatch, while a September 10 CME reading was 70%.

4. What does Polymarket's 62% figure measure?

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   It measures the market's priced probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting. It does not explain the Fed's reasoning or forecast the market response.

5. What should investors take from the current Fed pricing?

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   The displayed pricing is concentrated in a 25-basis-point hike or no change, with cuts outside the leading scenarios. The 62% versus 39% split is a snapshot rather than a fixed consensus.