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US real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, beating the 3.2% forecast and accelerating from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Annualized core PCE inflation was 2.5%, below the prior quarter's 3.3% but slightly above the 2.4% estimate.
Why it matters
The data present a mixed picture for monetary policy: growth was stronger than expected, while September core inflation remained firm. The figures alone do not settle the outlook for interest rates.
Market impact
Monthly core PCE rose 0.3% in September, matching expectations, and the previous month's reading was revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%. Annual core PCE reached 3.1%, in line with consensus and up from 3.0% previously. Markets will weigh resilient growth against the renewed firmness in inflation.
Frequently asked questions
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How much did US GDP grow in the third quarter?
Real GDP expanded at a 3.4% annualized rate, above the 3.2% forecast and up from 2.2% in the previous quarter.
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What did the Q3 core PCE reading show?
The advance annualized core PCE reading was 2.5%, slightly above the 2.4% estimate and below the prior quarter's 3.3%.
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How did monthly core PCE change in September?
Monthly core PCE rose 0.3%, matching expectations. The previous month's reading was revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%.
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What was the annual core PCE rate in September?
Annual core PCE was 3.1%, in line with consensus and up from 3.0% previously.
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Why do the GDP and PCE figures give a mixed signal for rates?
GDP growth beat expectations, signaling resilient economic activity, while September's core PCE readings showed inflation remained firm.
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