TheBlock
Bernstein told clients on Monday that Robinhood stands to capture "strong tailwinds" as the FIFA World Cup drives record trading activity across prediction markets. Daily volume across the sector jumped from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the United States faced Paraguay — figures that already eclipse the $1.4 billion traded during last season's Super Bowl.
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani project Robinhood's prediction market revenue to climb from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, a 286% year-over-year increase. That would represent roughly 17% of transaction-based revenue and 10% of total revenue next year, making prediction markets Robinhood's fastest-growing product line since launch.
Why it matters
Bernstein's bullishness hinges on distribution rather than novelty. Robinhood's Rothera partnership — a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse — has traded roughly 200 million contracts in its first 18 days since launching May 28, with FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts driving nearly all of the volume. The brokerage's user base, $0.01 per-contract commission, and 50% fee reduction for Gold subscribers give it a structural edge over rivals chasing the same flow.
The competitive set is widening fast. Polymarket has rolled out private-company event contracts, and Kalshi's CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major crypto tokens pulled in $1 billion in volume within a single week of launch. Bernstein expects the World Cup alone to drive more than $3 billion in incremental handle and $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer-volume uplift across the sector.
Market impact
Robinhood shares closed Friday at $93.19 on the Nasdaq. Bernstein separately named DraftKings and Coinbase as other publicly traded names positioned to benefit from World Cup flows, framing the tournament as a watershed moment for the category rather than a one-off sporting spike. HOOD stock sits at the centre of that call.
Source: The Block
Frequently asked questions
-
Why does Bernstein think the World Cup is a tailwind for Robinhood?
Daily prediction-market volume across the sector jumped from $2.2B on June 11 to $4.8B on June 12 (U.S. vs. Paraguay), both days above last season's $1.4B Super Bowl handle. Bernstein projects this flow lifts Robinhood's prediction revenue from $150M in 2025 to $586M in 2026.
-
How big could Robinhood's prediction-market business get in 2026?
Bernstein models prediction-market revenue reaching $586M in 2026, a 286% YoY increase. That would represent about 17% of transaction-based revenue and roughly 10% of total revenue for the year.
-
What role does the Rothera partnership play?
Rothera is a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse that Robinhood partners with. Since launching May 28, it has cleared approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts making up nearly all of the volume.
-
Who are Robinhood's main competitors in prediction markets?
Polymarket, which recently rolled out private-company event contracts, and Kalshi, which launched CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies that pulled in $1B in volume within a week. Bernstein also named DraftKings and Coinbase as publicly traded beneficiaries of World Cup flows.
-
What is Bernstein's broader forecast for the World Cup's impact?
Bernstein expects the tournament to drive more than $3B in incremental handle and $5B to $10B in consumer-volume uplift across the prediction-markets sector, calling the event a watershed moment for the category.
Benjamin Cowen
CryptoSlate
CoinTelegraph
Crypto Capital Venture
WuBlockchain
WatcherGuru
CoinDesk