A market analyst is mapping Bitcoin's current drawdown against the 2018 cycle, arguing the structure rhymes more with that bear than with 2019. The pattern: a February low, a higher low in April, then a relief rally into the 200-day moving average in May. So far, the 2025 tape has walked through the same sequence.
Why it matters
The frame matters because it reframes expectations. If the next leg mirrors 2018, the May rally into the 200-day was the bull trap before a deeper drawdown into year-end — not the start of a new uptrend. If it mirrors 2019 instead, the same price action was the launchpad for a fresh leg up. The cycle analogue the market settles on drives positioning, not the candle pattern itself.
Market impact
The scale of the move is the punchline. Bitcoin's February 2018 low was around $6K and the April higher low near $6,400. This cycle's comparable prints sit near $60K and $66.5K — roughly 10x across the board. A textbook 2018 replay would imply another leg lower from current levels; a 2019 replay would imply the bottom is already in. The 200-day moving average is the line the market is watching to decide which script it wants to run.
Frequently asked questions
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What 2018 pattern is the analyst comparing Bitcoin to today?
A February low, an April higher low, then a relief rally into the 200-day moving average in May. The analyst says Bitcoin's 2025 price action has walked through the same sequence.
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What were Bitcoin's price levels in the 2018 analogue?
The February 2018 low was around $6K and the April higher low near $6,400. The comparable prints this cycle are roughly $60K and $66.5K — about 10x higher across the board.
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How does a 2018 replay differ from a 2019 replay?
In a 2018 replay, the May rally into the 200-day was a bull trap before a deeper drawdown into year-end. In a 2019 replay, that same rally marked the bottom and the next leg up.
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Why does the 10x scale difference matter for the comparison?
The price structure is identical, but the absolute levels mean the same percentage drawdown this cycle hits at much higher dollar values — which changes how traders read "cheap" when they reach for the 2018 analogue.
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What level is the market watching to decide which cycle plays out?
The 200-day moving average. Whether Bitcoin holds it, loses it, or reclaims it after the May relief rally is the signal traders are using to choose between the 2018 and 2019 scripts.
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