CoinDesk
Core July PCE is expected at 3.2% year on year and 0.18% month on month, versus 3.3% and 0.13% in June. The reading, Nvidia's result and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday speech at Jackson Hole are the key near-term tests for Bitcoin, which has pulled below $79,000 after a seven-day run above $80,000.
A hotter PCE print could revive expectations for a 25-basis-point September rate hike. Bond markets price close to a 38% chance of that move, while Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj said markets see roughly 60% odds of a hold at 3.50%-3.75%.
Nvidia's earnings will be read through the broader AI and risk trade. Warsh's remarks will be watched against Treasury efforts to boost buybacks of longer-duration bonds and tame rising yields. Bitcoin's RSI above 70 signals unusually strong momentum after a move from roughly $63,000 to above $80,000, but does not itself predict a reversal.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the forecast for July's core PCE reading?
Economists expect core PCE at 3.2% year on year and 0.18% month on month, versus 3.3% and 0.13% in June.
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How could a hotter PCE print affect Bitcoin and September rate expectations?
A hotter print could revive expectations for a 25-basis-point September hike and give Bitcoin and the wider crypto market reason to decline. Bond markets price close to a 38% chance of that move.
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What will traders watch for in Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech?
Traders will watch whether Warsh supports Treasury efforts to boost buybacks of longer-duration bonds and tame rising yields.
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How does Nvidia's earnings result matter for this Bitcoin setup?
Nvidia's earnings will be read through the broader AI and risk trade.
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What does Bitcoin's RSI above 70 show?
It signals unusually strong recent upside momentum after Bitcoin moved from roughly $63,000 to above $80,000, but it does not itself predict a reversal.
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