Bitcoin’s $85,500 PCE Rally Fades as Treasury Yields Stay High
Cooling inflation eased rate-hike concerns, but a 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3% kept the relief rally from holding.
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Cooling inflation eased rate-hike concerns, but a 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3% kept the relief rally from holding.
A gentler rate outlook could ease pressure on risk assets, but elevated Treasury yields and profit-taking remain counterweights for crypto.
Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, also undershot expectations, adding to the case for easing price pressures.
The inflation release and other macro readings could clarify whether recent rate relief reflects a durable shift in the outlook.
A hot PCE reading could lift yields and pressure Bitcoin, but the key signal is whether price holds below the estimated basis after a crowded US data window.
A BEA methodology change could alter the Fed's preferred inflation gauge without changing CPI, splitting the rate signal across an immediate decision and a later data revision.
The rate path is unsettled: bond markets price close to a 38% chance of a 25-basis-point September hike, while Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj said markets see roughly 60% odds of a hold at 3.50%-3.75%.
Inflation, GDP and durable-goods data land together, putting recent ETF demand against a live test from yields and the dollar.
Beyond the macro calendar, TON's $54M unlock and a stacked slate of DAO votes add on-chain friction, while IREN's earnings put crypto-mining equity in focus.
The inflation print landed soft enough for risk assets to breathe, but three dissents on the FOMC vote and Kevin Warsh's 'no forward guidance' stance leave the next move genuinely up in the air.
Three G7 central banks meet in five days, with U.S. Q2 GDP and June PCE on Thursday the data tests that will set the rate direction crypto prices have to discount.
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A $1B liquidation flush has cleared leverage and the June 26 expiry removes a $10B+ positioning overhang, but the next 72 hours trade without ETF liquidity, so native flows alone decide whether $58K…
A clean inflation print cleared the upside shock but did not draw a bid: $651M of ETF outflows in three sessions pushed BTC within $189 of the $58K stress line, leaving the next leg in the hands of…
A $60K retake dissolved in a single session as sticky core PCE forced a leverage flush, with $10B+ in Friday options expiry now sitting on top of the wreckage.
The bounce came not from crypto buyers but from Micron's blockbuster earnings, proof that the same AI memory trade that hammered risk assets on Monday is now the only thing steadying the market…
The round $60K mark is no longer the level traders care about. With Thursday's core PCE forecast to print the hottest reading since late 2023, $59K is the support bulls now have to defend.
The macro print sets the impulse, the quarterly Deribit expiry decides whether it gets pinned or amplified, and roughly 80% of open interest is already out of the money after June's slide.
April PCE at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core didn't deliver the hot print bears feared, but sticky inflation also kills any near-term Fed-cut tailwind — Bitcoin's next leg now depends on spot demand, not…
Two soft prints in one morning: a labor market cooling faster than economists expected and an inflation gauge undershooting forecasts — the Fed's preferred measure is still 3.3% YoY.