CryptoSlate
Bitcoin’s daily mining revenue per unit of computing power fell 8.7% in a week to $32.86 per petahash per second per day on November 2. Yet the October 30 forward curve implied network hashrate would stay near 1,056 exahashes per second in November and 1,059 in December, close to the 1,062 EH/s average for the epoch ending October 29.
Why it matters
The curve points to little additional competition through December, potentially easing pressure after mining difficulty rebounded 16.4%, from 127.45 trillion before the September 19 adjustment to 148.36 trillion on October 29. But a plateau would leave miners competing at that elevated difficulty. Hashrate Index’s figures are forward-implied levels, not observed future hashrate or scheduled difficulty changes, and its methodology assumes transaction fees of about 0.02 BTC per block.
Weak dollar hashprice remains a separate challenge. Bitcoin’s price, transaction fees and block subsidy all affect the revenue benchmark, so steady competition alone cannot ensure miners earn more.
Market impact
Average forward hashprice was $33.04 per PH/s per day for November through April 2027, an indicative benchmark rather than a guaranteed realized rate. Miners can sell forward to stabilize revenue on output matched to the contract’s quantity and dates. In Luxor’s cash-settled contract, the seller receives the difference if the daily index falls below the agreed price and owes it if the index rises above it.
A hedge does not keep machines running or guarantee that output will match the contract. Fixed power costs still weigh on margins, leaving more efficient fleets with greater room between revenue and expenses. Even if competition holds steady, weaker Bitcoin prices or fees could further reduce unhedged earnings.
Frequently asked questions
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How far did Bitcoin mining hashprice fall?
Hashprice dropped 8.7% in a week to $32.86 per petahash per second per day on November 2.
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What did the forward curve imply about Bitcoin network hashrate?
It implied 1,056 EH/s in November and 1,059 EH/s in December, close to the 1,062 EH/s average for the epoch ending October 29.
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Why would a competition pause not necessarily improve miners’ earnings?
Miners would still compete at elevated difficulty, while dollar hashprice also depends on Bitcoin’s price, transaction fees and block subsidy.
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How can forward sales help Bitcoin miners?
Selling forward can stabilize the revenue rate for output matched to the contract’s quantity and dates, helping operators plan cash flow.
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What risks remain when miners hedge revenue?
A hedge does not ensure machines keep running or that output matches the contract. Power costs, uptime, contract performance and Bitcoin’s price and fees still affect earnings.
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