CryptoSlate
Bitcoin stayed near $84,000 as the 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.22% and the 30-year yield touched 5.5185%, its highest level in 22 years. The bond selloff is lifting borrowing costs and giving investors government debt yields above 5%, raising the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. Yet BTC remained within roughly $83,000 to $85,000 after retreating from a high near $87,000.
Why it matters
The rise in yields challenges risk assets by making bonds more competitive and tightening financial conditions. Bitcoin has gained about 22% from Aug. 19 to Sept. 24 even as the 10-year real yield rose roughly 50 basis points, according to Bitwise analyst Camran Khosravi. But persistent pressure from borrowing costs, strong economic activity and elevated energy costs could keep markets focused on the prospect of restrictive policy.
A 5% 10-year yield also changes the comparison for investors: Treasury debt offers income, while Bitcoin pays no coupon or dividend. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer said Bitcoin remained among the leading assets in his multi-asset framework, alongside commodities, while long-duration bonds lagged.
Market impact
Derivatives positioning has adjusted more sharply than spot prices. Combined Bitcoin open interest on Binance, Gate.io, HTX and Bybit fell to about $10.3 billion on Sept. 25 from $12 billion on Sept. 22, a 14.3% decline. Bitcoin fell about 2.3%, from roughly $86,000 to $84,000. The data do not reveal whether longs or shorts drove the reduction, but the reset may leave less fuel for cascading liquidations.
Liquidation concentrations sit around $85,300 to $85,700 above spot, with additional pockets near $83,000 and $80,000. The next macro tests identified in the report are the PCE inflation gauge on Sept. 30 and the September employment report on Oct. 2. Strong readings could add to pressure on yields and test Bitcoin’s resilience.
Frequently asked questions
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How much did Bitcoin open interest fall as yields rose?
Combined open interest on Binance, Gate.io, HTX and Bybit fell from about $12 billion on Sept. 22 to $10.3 billion on Sept. 25, a 14.3% decline.
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How did Bitcoin's price move compared with its open interest?
Bitcoin fell about 2.3%, from roughly $86,000 to $84,000, while open interest declined 14.3% over the same period.
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Why do Treasury yields above 5% matter for Bitcoin?
Government debt offers yields above 5%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, which pays no coupon or dividend.
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Where are Bitcoin liquidation levels concentrated?
The report identifies concentrations around $85,300 to $85,700 above spot, with additional liquidity near $83,000 and a larger cluster around $80,000.
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Which upcoming data releases could test Bitcoin's resilience?
The next macro tests identified are the PCE inflation gauge on Sept. 30 and the September employment report on Oct. 2.
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