CoinDesk
VanEck's mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck shows eight of its twelve capitulation indicators currently in their extreme zones, with all twelve having fired at some point over the past three months. Bitcoin trades near $64,300, roughly 49% below its all-time high, with thirty-day realized volatility compressed to 27.2% annualized against a long-run average near 80%. Despite the cluster of signals, VanEck is explicit that the bottom is not yet in.
Why it matters
The signal set is built around extremes in drawdown, miner economics and loss-holder counts, with each indicator firing only when it sits in the bottom 15th percentile of its own history, except price drawdown which triggers past -35%. Bitcoin's -49% drawdown ranks in the 35th percentile and would only count toward the total under the drawdown exception. VanEck's own historical returns tell the cautionary half of the story. When eight to twelve signals have fired at once, bitcoin averaged 12.8% over the following ninety days and 32% over the following one hundred eighty days, both below its broader historical averages of 15.2% and 36.3%. The only meaningful edge in the data appears over a one-year horizon. Prior troughs of -94%, -85%, -84% and -78% also came without the structural support this cycle carries, including spot ETF demand and a broader institutional holder base.
Market impact
Miners are carrying the brunt of the late-stage selloff. Daily network revenue is down 46% year over year and mining difficulty has dropped 18.3% from its November 2025 peak as unprofitable rigs switched off, the steepest difficulty decline since China's 2021 mining ban. Capital has rotated the other way through regulated vehicles. US spot bitcoin ETFs, a category in which VanEck runs its own HODL product, absorbed roughly $663 million over the previous thirty days and reversed about $2.4 billion of prior outflows, though thirty-day spot trading volume still sits 27% below normal and in the tenth percentile of history. VanEck's calendar math places bitcoin in the tenth month of its decline from the October 2025 peak, with the next accumulation window sitting between September and November.
Frequently asked questions
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What are VanEck's 12 capitulation signals?
VanEck's Bitcoin ChainCheck tracks twelve indicators that fire when extreme selling pressure hits. Each fires at the bottom 15th percentile of its own history, except price drawdown which triggers at any decline past -35%. Eight are currently in their zones.
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Why isn't Bitcoin's bottom in despite the capitulation signals?
VanEck's own historical data shows that when eight to twelve signals have fired at once, BTC averaged only 12.8% over the next ninety days and 32% over one hundred eighty days, both below broader historical averages. The edge only materializes over a one-year horizon.
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How far is Bitcoin below its all-time high right now?
Bitcoin trades near $64,300, roughly 49% below its all-time high. The decline is now in its tenth month, measured from the October 2025 peak, putting it close to the eleven-month average peak-to-trough duration of past bear cycles.
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How are bitcoin miners faring in the selloff?
Daily network mining revenue is down 46% year over year and mining difficulty has dropped 18.3% from its November 2025 peak as unprofitable rigs switch off. It is the steepest difficulty decline since China's 2021 mining ban.
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Are US spot bitcoin ETFs seeing inflows or outflows?
US spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly $663 million over the previous thirty days, reversing about $2.4 billion of prior outflows. Thirty-day spot trading volume, however, remains 27% below normal and in the tenth percentile of history.
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