Glassnode
Bitcoin has recovered above $80,000 as US spot ETF flows, on-chain spot demand and trader positioning all improved together — the first time in months that the bid is showing up simultaneously across all three layers.
Why it matters
US spot BTC ETFs have flipped firmly positive as price climbed from the mid-$60,000s into the low-$80,000s, per a Glassnode report. Relative Unrealized Loss, the share of the supply sitting at a loss, peaked near 25% in February and has compressed to 8% — consistent with a shallow drawdown regime so long as $60,000 holds. Coinbase Spot Volume Delta flipped sharply positive over the last two weeks, a clean signal that demand is returning on the venue most exposed to US retail and ETF flow.
Market impact
Realized Cap 30-day net position change is back to roughly $2.8B per month — bullish in absolute terms, but still a fraction of the $10B+ pace seen in prior bull expansions. That gap is why conviction stays capped: capital is coming in, just not at cycle-peak velocity. Support sits at $76,900 (the 30-day cost basis), resistance at $86,900 at the top of the November–February accumulation range. Hyperliquid traders are steadily adding long exposure into the move, implied volatility is falling across the curve led by the front end, and downside hedging demand is fading — the options structure is now balanced around $80K rather than tilted defensively.
Frequently asked questions
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What price level is BTC trading at and what are the key technical levels?
BTC has reclaimed $80,000. Support sits at $76,900 — the 30-day cost basis — while resistance is at $86,900, the top of the November–February accumulation range.
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How strong are current spot Bitcoin ETF inflows?
US spot BTC ETF flows have flipped firmly positive as price climbed from the mid-$60,000s into the low-$80,000s, according to a Glassnode report, though realized-cap growth remains well below prior bull-cycle pace.
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What does the Relative Unrealized Loss metric signal about the current cycle?
Relative Unrealized Loss peaked near 25% in February and has now compressed to 8%, consistent with a shallow drawdown regime so long as the $60,000 level holds.
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How are traders positioning in the current move?
Hyperliquid traders have been steadily adding long exposure alongside rising prices, Coinbase Spot Volume Delta flipped sharply positive over the last two weeks, and downside options hedging demand is fading — leaving the options structure balanced around $80K rather than tilted defensively.
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Why is BTC conviction capped below $86K despite improving demand?
Realized Cap 30-day net position change is back to roughly $2.8B per month — positive in absolute terms but still a fraction of the $10B+ pace seen in prior bull expansions, which keeps heavy overhead supply near $86,900 acting as resistance.
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