CoinDesk
Polymarket bettors cut the Clarity Act’s chance of becoming law in 2026 to 13% on Tuesday, down from about 30% roughly 24 hours earlier. The repricing followed Republicans’ rejection of a counterproposal from Senate Democrats, leaving negotiations stuck hours before a key procedural vote on the bill. Kalshi traders also pushed the timeline out: passage before Oct. 1, 2027 fell to 36% from about 53%, while the bill or another qualifying market-structure measure had a 51% chance of becoming law by Jan. 1, 2028.
Why it matters
Sen. Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill’s leading Republican negotiators, said Democrats had effectively resubmitted their opening position despite more than 100 changes Republicans made in a final draft over the weekend. She said Republicans had moved substantially, including agreeing to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework, while Democrats had not moved.
The Senate was scheduled to vote on invoking cloture on the motion to proceed, a step that requires 60 votes. Banking groups pressed lawmakers for tighter limits on stablecoin interest and rewards, while a bipartisan group of state attorneys general said the bill could weaken states’ ability to police crypto-related fraud.
Market impact
Monday’s jump in prediction-market odds reflected hopes that Republican concessions could break a months-long stalemate. Tuesday’s reversal turns the vote into a test of whether those concessions can produce a compromise.
For crypto investors, the immediate signal is regulatory delay. Weaker near-term odds keep market-structure rules unsettled and shift attention to the 60-vote hurdle, the negotiators’ next offer, and any repricing after the vote.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Polymarket cut the Clarity Act’s 2026 passage odds?
The repricing followed Republicans’ rejection of a counterproposal from Senate Democrats hours before a key procedural vote, leaving negotiations stuck.
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What does Kalshi’s pricing imply about the bill’s timeline?
Kalshi put passage before Oct. 1, 2027 at 36%, down from about 53%. It gave the bill or another qualifying market-structure measure a 51% chance of becoming law by Jan. 1, 2028.
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What Senate vote is the Clarity Act facing?
The Senate was scheduled to vote on invoking cloture on the motion to proceed. The step requires 60 votes.
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What concessions did Republicans say they made?
Republicans made more than 100 changes in their final draft, including ethics concessions. Lummis said they agreed to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework.
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What concerns are outside groups raising about the bill?
Banking groups are pressing for tighter restrictions on stablecoin interest and rewards. A bipartisan group of state attorneys general warned the bill could weaken states’ ability to police crypto-related fraud.
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