EU-US Trade Deadline and Fed Inflation Data Put Bitcoin in the Crossfire!

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is being shaped by a race between EU and US negotiators to finalise a trade accord before a self-imposed deadline, with the next formal trilogue round set for May 19 in Strasbourg. President Trump's May 2 threat to lift tariffs on EU autos to 25% from 15% is the live risk: the Kiel Institute estimates that move alone could cost Germany nearly €15 billion in near-term output and around €30 billion in long-term losses — at a moment when German growth is forecast at just 0.8% this year.

The macro bridge to Bitcoin runs through US inflation and Federal Reserve policy. A Fed Board note estimated that tariffs implemented through November 2025 raised core goods PCE by 3.1% and core PCE overall by 0.8 percentage points through February 2026, a figure corroborated by Dallas Fed research. With the Fed holding rates at 3.5%–3.75% on April 29 and headline PCE…