CryptoSlate
Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $58,189 on June 25 before clawing back toward $60,100, even as the May PCE print came in roughly in line at 4.1% headline and 3.4% core year over year. The data cleared the immediate risk of an upside inflation shock, but the absence of a new bid told the real story: spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $68.3M on June 22, $113.8M on June 23, and $469M on June 24, roughly $651M across three sessions. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, called the macro reprieve "a brief exhale," while 21Shares' Can-Luca Köymen at Sygnum framed the policy backdrop as a "print-by-print Fed" where core PCE now drives the dial.
Why it matters
The bull thesis that any clean inflation reading would summon flows just failed its first real test. Headline PCE is still more than double the Fed's 2% target, and the June FOMC statement flagged above-normal inflation uncertainty with risks weighted to the upside, leaving September hike odds above 60%. Alex Blume of Two Prime argued that Bitcoin has "struggled in price and in garnering attention" while AI stocks ripped roughly 170% over the prior year against a 40% BTC drawdown, meaning the macro headwind now competes with a sector-level rotation away from crypto.
Market impact
The $59,000–$62,000 zone that bulls had anchored to the 200-week moving average broke at the lower boundary on June 25, and a decisive close below $58,000 puts the $50,000–$54,000 band on the table. Strategy's MSTR printed an intraday low near $85 with its STRC preferred below par at $89, closing one of its BTC funding channels and adding a crypto-specific overhang on top of the macro ceiling. On the other side, Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score hit 1.0, its maximum, with large holders buying a net 259,298 BTC between $59,000 and $67,000 since June 5, the same exhaustion signal that preceded the March 2020 and FTX-era recoveries. The bull case needs oil relief to translate into softer June and July prints so the Fed can hold; if ETF outflows persist into that window, the PCE relief confirms structural de-risking rather than a turning point.
Frequently asked questions
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How low did Bitcoin drop on June 25, 2025?
Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $58,189 on June 25 before recovering toward $60,100. The move broke the lower boundary of the $59,000–$62,000 zone bulls had anchored to the 200-week moving average.
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What did the May PCE inflation report show?
The May PCE print came in at 4.1% headline and 3.4% core year over year, with a monthly headline of 0.4% versus a 0.5% estimate. Both annual figures remain more than double the Fed's 2% target.
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How much did spot Bitcoin ETFs lose in three sessions?
US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs logged net outflows of $68.3M on June 22, $113.8M on June 23, and $469M on June 24, totalling roughly $651M across the three sessions.
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Why did Strategy's STRC preferred stock matter for BTC?
Strategy's STRC preferred slipped below its $100 par to $89 on June 25, closing one of the company's BTC funding channels. Combined with MSTR hitting an intraday low near $85, it added a crypto-specific funding overhang on top of the macro pressure.
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What is the bull case for Bitcoin reclaiming higher levels?
Bulls point to Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score hitting its maximum of 1.0 and large holders buying a net 259,298 BTC between $59,000 and $67,000 since June 5. The scenario requires oil relief holding and softer June/July prints so the Fed can stay on hold, with $66K–$67K as the reclaim level and $82K–$85K as the…
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