TheBlock
Kalshi has begun early, informal discussions with investment banks about a potential initial public offering, The Information reported on Thursday. The prediction-market operator is bringing the pitch to bankers fresh off a blockbuster growth year: annualized revenue has now crossed $2 billion, up from the $1 billion run rate the Wall Street Journal flagged in March, and May monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion versus $14.81 billion in April. Kalshi declined to comment.
The IPO track follows a $1 billion Series F in May that valued the company at $22 billion, led by Coatue with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. The size of that roster — and Morgan Stanley's presence in particular — signals the kind of capital stack and auditor-ready governance an S-1 filing requires.
Why it matters
A public Kalshi would be the first major prediction-market venue to test public-market appetite for event-derivative volume as a core metric. The category has historically sat in a regulatory no man's land — the Commodity Futures Trading Commission claims exclusive oversight under the Commodity Exchange Act, while a growing list of states argue the products are unlicensed sports betting. Kentucky joined that list this week, suing Kalshi, Polymarket, and related entities, and US gaming-industry groups sent a Senate letter urging lawmakers to explicitly ban sports-linked prediction markets in crypto market structure legislation.
That dual-track legal exposure — federal pre-emption claims against state bans, and fresh state enforcement actions landing weekly — is exactly the kind of overhang public-market investors will want priced into a listing. Polymarket, the closest comparable, is not yet public and trades in a more limited venue mix.
Market impact
The volume gap with Polymarket is widening in Kalshi's favor: Polymarket posted $7.08 billion in May, down from $9.01 billion in April, while Kalshi grew month-over-month.
Frequently asked questions
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How much revenue is Kalshi generating right now?
Annualized revenue has crossed $2 billion, according to The Information, up from a $1 billion run rate the Wall Street Journal reported in March. May monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion, up from $14.81 billion in April.
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What was Kalshi's most recent private valuation?
A $1 billion Series F in May valued Kalshi at $22 billion, led by Coatue with Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest participating.
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Why is Kalshi's IPO timing complicated?
Prediction markets sit in a contested legal zone. The CFTC claims exclusive federal oversight under the Commodity Exchange Act, but a growing list of states — Kentucky most recently — are suing Kalshi and Polymarket for allegedly operating unlicensed sports betting. Gaming-industry groups have also asked the Senate to…
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How does Kalshi's volume compare to Polymarket?
Kalshi is pulling away. Kalshi posted $16.81 billion in May volume, up from $14.81 billion in April. Polymarket posted $7.08 billion in May, down from $9.01 billion in April, per The Block's data dashboard.
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Has Kalshi confirmed the IPO talks?
No. Kalshi declined to comment when contacted by The Information, which first reported the early, informal discussions with investment banks.
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