TheBlock
Open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket fell roughly 20% as the World Cup frenzy wound down, a sharp unwind after weeks in which sports markets dominated both venues.
Sports accounted for about 80% of total volume on each platform throughout the tournament, according to data cited by The Block. That concentration is why the drop matters less than it looks: the unwind is a sports-betting fade, not a broad-based prediction-market reset. Politics, crypto price markets, and other categories had been a thin slice of activity for weeks.
The next test is whether non-sports open interest rebuilds from here, or whether the platforms need another sports catalyst to recapture the volume spike. The NFL playoffs and March Madness sit closest on the calendar.
Frequently asked questions
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How much did open interest fall on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Open interest on both platforms fell roughly 20% as the World Cup frenzy unwound, per The Block's Data and Insights newsletter.
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What share of platform volume came from sports during the World Cup?
Sports accounted for about 80% of total volume on each platform throughout the weekslong tournament, which is why the post-event drop is concentrated rather than systemic.
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Is the 20% open interest drop a sign of weakness in prediction markets overall?
Not really. Sports dominated the books for weeks, so the unwind is a sports-betting fade rather than a broad-based prediction-market reset.
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Which non-sports categories compete for volume on these platforms?
Politics, crypto price markets, and other verticals made up a thin slice of activity during the tournament while football drove most trading interest.
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What catalysts could bring volume back to Kalshi and Polymarket?
The NFL playoffs and March Madness are the next major sports events on the calendar and the most likely drivers of a volume rebound.
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