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Kraken Parent Payward Sees Q3 EBITDA Sink 66% Year Over Year

Quarter-over-quarter numbers are improving, but the exchange is racing to diversify into prediction markets, tokenized stocks, and an AI finance agent as trading volume runs 30% below last year.

Payward, the parent company of Kraken, reported $60 million in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA on Friday, up sharply from $23 million in the second quarter but down roughly two-thirds from the $178.6 million posted a year earlier. The privately held company also switched disclosure metrics, replacing adjusted revenue with a measure it calls total platform margin, which deducts staking rewards paid to customers. That figure rose to $487 million from $436 million in Q2, though it fell 12% year over year.

Underlying activity shows the same split. Customers transacted $353 billion across Payward's platforms in the quarter, up 22% from the second quarter but down 30% from a year ago. Funded accounts grew to 7.1 million, up 37% year over year, and billable accounts climbed 74% to 1.5 million.

Why it matters

The earnings mix explains the roadmap. Payward is pushing into US prediction markets, stock perpetual futures through its own CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, cross-product collateral sharing, and USD wire settlement through its Federal Reserve master account. It added more than 200 tokenized UK and European equities to xStocks this week, and that product crossed $1 billion in AUM in October. The company also plans xPO, a framework that would let private companies raise capital by issuing shares onchain, pending regulatory approval.

Market impact

AI is becoming a second pillar. Kraken AI is already live in the US app for chat-based trading and staking, and Payward is developing a separate personal finance AI agent that would execute trades only within customer-set limits and with per-trade approval. The diversification push is a direct answer to a thinner trading-revenue base: watch whether the new products can offset the year-over-year margin decline before the next earnings cycle.

On the RWA front, tokenized equities remain a small but fast-growing lane, and Payward's funds built around xStocks would deepen its position against rivals courting the same flow.

Frequently asked questions

  1. How much did Payward's Q3 adjusted EBITDA fall year over year?

    Payward reported $60 million in Q3 adjusted EBITDA, down about two-thirds from the $178.6 million it posted in the same quarter a year earlier, though up from $23 million in Q2.

  2. What is Payward's 'total platform margin' metric?

    It is the measure Payward now uses in place of adjusted revenue. It deducts staking rewards paid to customers and came in at $487 million for Q3, up from $436 million in Q2 but down 12% year over year.

  3. What new products is Kraken planning for US clients?

    Prediction markets for US clients, stock perpetual futures through its own CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, USD wire settlement via its Federal Reserve master account, cross-product collateral sharing, and a US credit card pilot.

  4. What is Kraken's xStocks platform and how big is it?

    xStocks offers tokenized equities, recently expanded with more than 200 UK and European stocks. It surpassed $1 billion in assets under management in October, and Payward plans funds built around it plus an xPO onchain share-issuance product pending regulatory approval.

  5. How will Kraken's planned personal finance AI agent work?

    The agent would manage personal finances within limits set by each customer, and every trade or workflow would require customer approval before it runs. It builds on Kraken AI, which is already live in the US app for chat-based buying, selling, converting, and staking.

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