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Bernstein analysts project annual prediction market trading volumes reaching $10 trillion by 2035, up from an estimated $410 billion in 2026, in a note to clients led by Gautam Chhugani. The forecast assumes volumes compound at roughly 70% annually from the $50 billion posted in 2025. Financial-asset contracts including crypto, equities, and commodities are expected to overtake sports as the largest category by mid-2030s, climbing from about 12% of volumes in 2025 to 49% by 2035 while sports slips from 61% to 38%.
Why it matters
Bernstein frames the trajectory as the legitimization of a new derivatives venue rather than a niche betting product. The addressable market is roughly $700 trillion in 2025 and rises to $900 trillion by 2035 in the note's model; capturing just 0.5% of that pool produces the $4.7 trillion base case. KPI markets that let users trade a single corporate metric such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, plus perp futures expanding from crypto into commodities and single-stock perps, are the product vectors that move the needle beyond event contracts.
Market impact
The shift is already visible in 2026 prints. Crypto's share of Kalshi's volume rose from under 5% in January to about 20% by August, with short-duration 15-minute BTC markets driving much of the lift. Commodity trading volume on Kalshi jumped from under $2 million in 2025 to roughly $590 million year-to-date in 2026, including $410 million in August alone. Kalshi held about 60% of industry volume through August, up from 35% in 2025, while Polymarket saw sports contracts rise to 52% of global volume from 39% the year before. Bernstein flags that US regulatory clarity for sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027 to 2028.
Frequently asked questions
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How big does Bernstein expect prediction markets to get by 2035?
Bernstein's analysts project annual trading volumes reaching $10 trillion by 2035, up from an estimated $410 billion in 2026, on roughly 70% annual compounding from a $50 billion base in 2025.
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What is driving the shift from sports to financial assets in prediction markets?
Financial-asset contracts including crypto, equities, and commodities are forecast to grow from 12% of volumes in 2025 to 49% by 2035, while sports slips from 61% to 38%, per Bernstein's note.
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How much of Kalshi's volume now comes from crypto?
Crypto's share of Kalshi's volume rose from under 5% in January 2026 to about 20% by August, with short-duration 15-minute BTC markets a key driver of the lift.
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What are KPI markets and why does Bernstein highlight them?
KPI markets let users trade a single corporate metric such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth rather than the stock price itself. Bernstein calls them a product vector that moves prediction markets beyond event contracts.
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When does Bernstein expect US regulatory clarity for prediction markets?
Bernstein says clarity on US sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027 to 2028, citing conflicting court decisions over federal derivatives oversight versus state gaming authority.
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