CryptoSlate
The Fed will decide policy on Sept. 16 after August jobs, PPI and CPI, while August PCE and a BEA annual update arrive on Sept. 30. July's latest PCE reading showed headline and core prices up 0.2% month over month, with 12-month inflation at 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
That creates two market tests. The FOMC's decision and new projections can reset the expected rate path first. The later revision will change the inflation history investors use to assess future meetings.
BEA is changing how it measures portfolio-management services. Christopher Waller said that one adjustment could lower 12-month PCE inflation by a few tenths of a percentage point, but that estimate covers one component, not the full update. Bitcoin's response will depend on how the data, projections and revised PCE path change rate expectations. Neither date provides a predetermined price signal.
Frequently asked questions
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Which data will be available before the Sept. 16 FOMC decision?
August jobs, PPI and CPI will arrive before the Sept. 15-16 meeting. July's PCE reading is the latest official PCE data available before the decision.
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What will BEA release on Sept. 30?
BEA will publish August PCE inflation with its annual update, revising the PCE series and the inflation history used to assess later Fed meetings.
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Which PCE component did Waller say could lower inflation?
Waller pointed to a new method for portfolio-management services and said it could lower 12-month PCE inflation by a few tenths of a percentage point. That is an estimate for one component, not the full update.
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Does the methodology change rewrite CPI?
No. CPI is a separate BLS index, while PCE is the Commerce Department measure tied to the Fed's 2% longer-run inflation objective.
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How could the two releases affect Bitcoin?
The Sept. 16 decision and projections can reset near-term rate expectations. A lower revised PCE path could support risk assets, while hotter incoming inflation could raise expectations for tighter policy.
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