CoinDesk
The U.S. Commerce Department finalized CHIPS Act awards worth up to $100 million each to quantum-computing firms Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantinuum on Tuesday, taking minority stakes in all three. The capital is targeted at scaling the hardware, manufacturing and error-correction systems needed for larger, fault-tolerant machines, and it lands inside the same 2029 window that Ethereum and Bitcoin developers have already circled as a deadline for replacing the cryptography that secures their networks.
Why it matters
Ethereum's protocol team has set December 2029 as a self-imposed deadline for making the base layer quantum-resistant across execution, consensus and data, planning as if Q-day could arrive as early as 2030. Bitcoin has no equivalent network-wide target, but work has accelerated this year around BIP-360, which proposes a post-quantum output type, and BIP-361, which lays out a phased migration away from today's ECDSA and Schnorr signatures. Researchers and institutions have similarly discussed 2029 as the window by which a credible migration path needs to be in place.
The migration is most awkward for Bitcoin. An estimated 1 million BTC sit in addresses whose public keys are already exposed, including the holdings attributed to creator Satoshi Nakamoto. BIP-361 proposes eventually restricting legacy signatures after a migration window, a step that could strand any coins users fail to move. Ethereum faces a different coordination problem: its foundation has a dedicated post-quantum team and a fixed target, but moving wallets, applications and users onto new signature schemes could continue well beyond the base-layer upgrade.
Market impact
No quantum computer is expected to threaten Bitcoin or Ethereum by 2029. Google Quantum AI estimated earlier this year that attacking 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography could require fewer than 1,200 error-corrected qubits. IBM nevertheless plans to deliver Starling, a fault-tolerant machine capable of running 100 million gates on 200 logical qubits, in 2029, and Quantinuum is targeting hundreds of logical qubits around the same period.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is 2029 the deadline for quantum-resistant crypto?
Ethereum's protocol team has set December 2029 as a self-imposed deadline for making the base layer quantum-resistant, and Bitcoin developers have similarly discussed 2029 as the window by which a credible migration path needs to be in place.
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Which companies got the U.S. Commerce Department's quantum CHIPS Act awards?
The Commerce Department finalized awards worth up to $100M each to Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantinuum on Tuesday, taking minority stakes in all three to scale hardware, manufacturing and error-correction systems.
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How many BTC sit in addresses with exposed public keys?
An estimated 1 million BTC sit in addresses whose public keys are already exposed, including holdings attributed to creator Satoshi Nakamoto.
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What are BIP-360 and BIP-361?
BIP-360 proposes a post-quantum output type for Bitcoin, while BIP-361 lays out a phased migration away from today's ECDSA and Schnorr signatures, eventually restricting legacy signatures after a migration window.
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Can quantum computers actually break Bitcoin or Ethereum by 2029?
No. Google Quantum AI estimated attacking 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography could require fewer than 1,200 error-corrected qubits, but IBM and Quantinuum target fault-tolerant machines in 2029, which is why protocol developers want the migration done early.
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