CoinDesk
10x Research's Markus Thielen argues that the dominant force behind bitcoin's slide below $60,000 is institutional selling through U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, not Strategy's first bitcoin disposition since 2022. Since the hotter-than-expected April U.S. CPI report landed on May 12, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have absorbed roughly $5.4 billion in net redemptions, even as Strategy quietly accumulated about $2 billion in bitcoin over the same stretch, making it one of the few meaningful buyers in the market. "The market has misdiagnosed this selloff," Thielen wrote. "Strategy is not the problem."
Why it matters
Attention has fixated on whether Strategy, the largest corporate holder, will keep selling into a thinner tape, but Thielen's read is that the marginal seller is an ETF allocator repricing duration risk after a re-accelerating inflation print. His model forecasts May CPI at 4.3% year-over-year — above April's 3.8% reading and above the Wall Street consensus of 4.2%. A print north of 4% would reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve keeps rates higher for longer, or even tilts toward an additional hike rather than the multiple cuts markets priced at the start of the year.
Market impact
The flow picture is uniformly weak: stablecoins bled roughly $1.7 billion last week and $5.5 billion over the past month, while bitcoin futures open interest has compressed sharply as traders cut exposure. Thielen expects a short-term relief bounce early in the week, but warns the move fades if Wednesday's CPI surprises hot. Bitcoin is technically oversold after the plunge, but his bottom line is blunt — institutional ETF flows are driving price, and Wednesday's print is the next gate to clear.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did bitcoin drop below $60,000 according to 10x Research?
10x Research's Markus Thielen attributes the slide to roughly $5.4 billion in net redemptions from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs after the hotter-than-expected April CPI report on May 12, not to selling by Strategy.
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How much have spot bitcoin ETFs redeemed since the May 12 CPI report?
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $5.4 billion in net redemptions since the April U.S. inflation report landed on May 12, per 10x Research.
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What is 10x Research forecasting for the May CPI print?
10x's model projects May CPI at 4.3% year-over-year, above April's 3.8% reading and above the Wall Street consensus estimate of 4.2%.
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Did Strategy sell bitcoin during the recent selloff?
10x notes Strategy made its first bitcoin sale since 2022, but over the same window it also accumulated about $2 billion in BTC, making it one of the few meaningful buyers in the market. Thielen argues Strategy is not the driver of the weakness.
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What metric does 10x say is driving bitcoin's price right now?
Thielen says institutional ETF flows are the dominant signal. His note to clients closes with the line: "Institutional ETF flows are driving price. Follow the money, not the narrative."
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