Long-term Bitcoin holders hit record 16.5M BTC as macro…

Long-term Bitcoin holders now control more than 16.5 million BTC — the highest conviction reading on record — even as short-term holders have been selling the dip. On-chain data shows this cohort is not only holding at a loss but actively adding, a divergence that historically precedes significant recoveries.

Why it matters

The macro backdrop shifted materially after President Trump announced the cancellation of scheduled strikes against Iran, adding over $1 billion to US equity markets in a single session. That de-escalation lands just as the SpaceX IPO — now four times oversubscribed — approaches, framing a potential confluence of risk-on flows into both equities and crypto. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart notes that Solana and XRP are holding up better than expected, partly because ETF investors are sizing crypto positions conservatively — 2-5% of portfolio — making them less likely to panic-sell a 50% drawdown.

Fundamentals analyst Tom Lee is buying ETH at roughly 0.1% of total supply per week. Ethereum exchange balances are near all-time lows, staking rates are at record highs, and the staking exit queue sits at zero — a supply-shock setup building quietly while price remains at cycle lows. Separately, ADA joined BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and LINK in the new NASDAQ and CME Group crypto index futures, a signal that Wall Street continues to expand its institutional crypto footprint regardless of near-term price action.

Market impact

Bitcoin is currently holding the 200-week moving average, with the 300-week MA sitting near $54,000 as a secondary support. Historically, buying BTC in midterm years has produced returns ranging from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of percent — a four-out-of-four track record.