CryptoSlate
Spain's second World Cup title closed the largest sports-related prediction markets yet, with Polymarket and Kalshi pulling in roughly $5.57 billion in cumulative volume on champion contracts. Polymarket generated about $4.28 billion, Kalshi about $1.29 billion. The two venues together accounted for roughly 27% of legal US sports-betting volume during the tournament, up from around 9% at the start of the year, per H2 Gambling Capital.
A Dune Analytics review of 194,422 addresses that traded Polymarket's winner contract painted a sharply uneven outcome distribution. 129,649 addresses (66.7%) finished in the red, more than 114,000 of them losing under $100 and averaging $9.34 each. Nearly 58,000 profitable addresses averaged $4.85 in gains. At the top end, 43 wallets lost a combined $15.19 million, while just 54 addresses earned more than $100,000 each, averaging $413,000 and collecting $22.3 million, or nearly 60% of all positive returns. Crypto researcher DeFi Oasis flagged that five accounts, including asparagus2012, Allezpapa, yamal19, thesingularityisnear and wco26, each cleared more than $1 million.
Why it matters
The asymmetry mirrors the early crypto PnL tables, where a sliver of wallets captures most of the profit and the long tail bleeds slowly. Kyle Sonlin, president and co-founder of Global Settlement Network, framed the concentration as a function of information, technology and capital advantages compounding, not necessarily insider trading, but the same structural shape. The next test is whether platforms can hold those users once daily football contracts dry up and rotate them into elections, economic data and geopolitical events, where the same edge advantages carry far higher manipulation risk. A CFTC probe into a White House teleprompter operator over Kalshi trades linked to Trump's speech vocabulary, with one account flagged carrying over $90,000 in potential profit, is the kind of case that will define that next phase.
Market impact
Dragonfly GP Rob Hadick said some proposed block trades tied to legislative and regulatory outcomes have already reached nine figures, and that prediction markets will be 'much, much bigger' as commercial hedging use cases mature. Meta is reportedly exploring a prediction-market-style product and partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi, a distribution lever that could pull event contracts well beyond the crypto-native base.
Frequently asked questions
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How much World Cup volume did Polymarket and Kalshi record?
Polymarket generated about $4.28 billion on its World Cup champion contract, with Kalshi adding roughly $1.29 billion, for about $5.57 billion combined across the two platforms.
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How concentrated were profits on Polymarket's winner contract?
A Dune Analytics review of 194,422 addresses found 54 wallets earned more than $100,000 each, averaging $413,000, and captured about $22.3 million, or nearly 60% of all positive returns. Five accounts, including asparagus2012, Allezpapa, yamal19, thesingularityisnear and wco26, each cleared over $1 million.
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What share of US sports-betting volume did prediction markets hit during the World Cup?
H2 Gambling Capital estimated that Polymarket and Kalshi together accounted for roughly 27% of legal US sports-betting volume during the tournament, up from about 9% at the start of the year.
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Why are prediction markets attracting interest beyond sports betting?
Dragonfly GP Rob Hadick said companies are exploring contracts tied to policy, regulatory and commercial outcomes, with some proposed block trades reaching nine figures, and that prediction markets will be 'much, much bigger' as commercial hedging use cases mature.
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What is the main regulatory fight prediction markets face?
Kalshi argues its contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act, while several states call sports contracts unlicensed betting. A federal judge in July rejected Kalshi's bid to block New York enforcement, and parallel CFTC disputes with Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois remain open.
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