Cboe launches Cboe Predicts binary options on Mini S&P 500

Cboe Global Markets has launched Cboe Predicts, its new prediction markets suite, with binary option contracts on the Mini S&P 500 Index (XSP) trading under the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX. The contracts sit at one-tenth the size of standard SPX options, making them accessible to retail accounts that can't move full SPX notional.

Why it matters

The contracts are listed securities options, centrally cleared by the OCC and operating under the same regulatory and surveillance framework as U.S.-listed options. That structure separates Cboe Predicts from offshore crypto-native prediction venues and from event-contract platforms operating in regulatory grey zones. It's the same regulated plumbing that already handles SPX weeklys and zero-day options, applied to a yes/no payoff on where XSP closes.

Market impact

Interactive Brokers is live at launch, with Charles Schwab expected to roll out access in the coming months and additional retail brokerage platforms to follow. The distribution list is the real signal here: Schwab and IBKR are the two largest retail options gateways in the US, and putting event-style contracts behind their existing KYC and margining stacks pulls prediction markets directly into brokerage accounts where sportsbook and crypto-book users currently sit. Watch the open interest on XSPBW and XSPBX over the first 30 days as the read on whether retail treats these as a SPX vol proxy or as a true event-betting substitute.

Source: [Cboe Introduces Cboe Predicts, Launching First Products in New Prediction Markets Suite](https://ir.cboe.com/news/news-details/2026/Cboe-Introduces-Cboe-Predicts-Launching-First-Products-in-New-Prediction-Markets-Suite/default.aspx)