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Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday, a five-page bill that would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependents from placing bets on prediction markets tied to specific government actions, policies, or political outcomes. Lawmakers who violate the prohibition would face fines of close to $2,000 or 10% of the transaction value, whichever is greater, plus disgorgement of any net gain from the bet. The bill builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which already targets lawmakers' stock trading.
Why it matters
Steil's bill lands as prediction markets have become a flashpoint in Washington. Earlier this year, prosecutors arrested active-duty U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, on allegations he used confidential information to place a Polymarket bet on whether Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power — a wager that paid out more than $400,000. The Senate moved last month to bar its own members from trading on prediction markets, and other House bills targeting lawmaker participation have already been introduced. The platforms themselves — Kalshi and Polymarket — have said they have taken steps to curb insider trading on policy-related contracts.
Market impact
For Kalshi and Polymarket, the bill would not ban the products, but it would codify the political optics that have trailed the sector since the Maduro incident. Compliance costs on the platforms rise, and any contract class that depends on participation from the political class — or that draws high-profile bets from people with privileged access — faces renewed scrutiny. The House bill mirrors the Senate's voluntary approach but adds a monetary penalty floor, turning insider trading on policy markets into a clearer regulatory line item rather than a norms question.
Frequently asked questions
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What does the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act actually do?
The bill, introduced by Rep. Bryan Steil on Thursday, would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependents from placing bets on prediction markets tied to specific government actions, policies, or political outcomes.
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What penalties would lawmakers face for violating the bill?
Violators would be fined close to $2,000 or 10% of the transaction value, whichever is greater, and would also have to disgorge any net gain realized from the bet.
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What incident is driving the legislation?
Prosecutors arrested active-duty U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, on allegations he used confidential information to place a Polymarket bet on whether Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power — a wager that paid out more than $400,000.
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Has the Senate already acted on prediction market insider trading?
Yes. The Senate moved last month to bar its own members from trading on prediction markets, and other House bills targeting lawmaker participation in prediction markets have already been introduced.
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How have Kalshi and Polymarket responded to insider trading concerns?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket have said they have taken steps to curb insider trading on policy-related contracts, though Steil's bill would impose a statutory framework on top of those voluntary platform rules.
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