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House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer, R-Ky., is calling for new limits on government officials' use of prediction markets, up to and including an outright ban, over concerns that public servants are profiting from bets placed with insider information. On Friday the committee released findings from an investigation it launched in May, built on 1,700 pages of documents and five bipartisan staff briefings from prediction market companies. The probe found an active-duty U.S. Army soldier used confidential information to bet on Polymarket ahead of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture, and that a former White House teleprompter operator also made money on inside-information bets. Political candidates have faced similar allegations.
Why it matters
Prediction markets have become a major venue for betting on elections, policy, and government actions, and the findings show how non-public information held by officials can leak straight into those books. The committee memo argues that restrictions applied to officials across all branches of government would strengthen the ethical expectation that government personnel should not personally or financially benefit from access to non-public information tied to their work.
Market impact
The committee wants legislation restricting which bets federal employees, lawmakers, and congressional staff can place on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, or an outright prohibition, and it wants Congress to push prediction market companies and federal agencies to share information needed to enforce the rules. The Senate already voted in April to pass a resolution banning members from trading on prediction markets. Both Polymarket and Kalshi say they have tightened controls to prevent officials from trading on inside information. The key question for the sector is whether any ban covers all contracts or only government-related ones, which would define how much of the fast-growing prediction market volume is in scope.
Frequently asked questions
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What did the House Oversight investigation into prediction markets find?
The committee, in a probe launched in May, reviewed 1,700 pages of documents and received five bipartisan staff briefings from prediction market companies. It found cases of government-linked insiders profiting from bets placed with confidential information.
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Who was caught using inside information on prediction markets?
An active-duty U.S. Army soldier used confidential information to bet on Polymarket ahead of Nicolás Maduro's capture, and the White House's former teleprompter operator also made money on inside bets. Political candidates have faced allegations too.
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What reforms is Congress considering for prediction markets?
Chair James Comer wants legislation that restricts which bets federal employees, lawmakers and congressional staff can place, or an outright ban. The committee also wants platforms and federal agencies to share information to enforce the rules.
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Which prediction market platforms are involved?
Polymarket and Kalshi, the two major prediction market companies. Both say they have taken steps to tighten controls preventing government officials from trading on inside information.
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Has the Senate already acted on prediction market trading?
Yes. In April, the Senate voted to pass a resolution banning members from trading on prediction markets, ahead of the House Oversight committee's findings.
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